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Author: Subject: Prices of Palladium and Rhodium have SKYROCKETED - here's what I see happening.
RogueRose
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[*] posted on 14-2-2020 at 20:59
Prices of Palladium and Rhodium have SKYROCKETED - here's what I see happening.


Anyone know why Palladium and Rhodium are so expensive now? Palladium was below $500 back in 2016 and is now at $2,455 and Rhodium is $11,075 but was about $750 in 2016 as well, so almost a 1500% increase in 3 1/2 years! That is a pretty nice return if you invested!

I'm guessing the price of Rhodium is so expensive b/c South Africa and Zimbabwe are the #1 & #3 reserves with Russia at #2. With what looks like could be major civil unrest in South Africa (who is already supporting much of Zimbabwe via illegal immigration), the supply could dry up really quickly. They are already shutting down mines there, they shut down a gold mine with 7,000 workers because they "couldn't make a profit" even though gold is near an all time high! How can they not make a profit at this level when they were operating when gold was at $900/oz!

For palladium the top producers are:
Russia - 81 tons/year
South Africa - 78 tons/year
Canada - 19 tons/year
USA - 13 tons/year
Zimbabwe - 12 tons/year
All other countries - 8.4 tons TOTAL

So, it doesn't look like it is a scarcity issue, it's a political issue driving this, mainly the instability in South Africa (which will spread into Zimbabwe as soon as unrest starts). The SA Rand is a hairs width away from being considered "Junk" status and the country has been looted for 25+ years.

Even at these high prices, I suspect we will see them go even higher in the next 3-5 years, but I won't even begin speculating how high it is going to go, I think very high.
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Heptylene
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[*] posted on 15-2-2020 at 02:24


Hmm, I guess I'll never have rhodium in my collection then, or not for a few years at least... $350 per GRAM!
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B(a)P
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[*] posted on 15-2-2020 at 02:51


China's adoption of catalytic converters. Demand has exceeded supply for a couple of years and it is getting worse

[Edited on 15-2-2020 by B(a)P]
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BromicAcid
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[*] posted on 15-2-2020 at 06:30


Exactly as B(a)P says. Also note that both are byproducts of mining for other metals so you really don't just tear more ore out of a rhodium vein when you need it. There are some interesting articles on precious metals websites about palladium and how much has been stripped out of the collectables community, it kind of acted as a reservoir of material for awhile but it looks like the only people who have it left are holding. I bet there are quite a few chemists out there feverishly working to develop a replacement catalyst composition. Let's wish them God Speed.



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BromicAcid
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[*] posted on 15-2-2020 at 06:34


Article on the palladium deficit:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-12/Palladium-deficit-expe...

Of interest too is that the current BUY price is $10,000 USD but the SELL price is $11,750 so there is a pretty large gap there. Also, as someone who's been trying to unload rhodium I need to point out that the usual buyers of rhodium either are not buying rhodium or they have a wait list and will call you when they need it so that they don't hold inventory.




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yobbo II
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[*] posted on 11-3-2020 at 18:57


Rhodium is back up at 10, 000
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BromicAcid
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[*] posted on 11-3-2020 at 19:19


Rhodium buyers are buying again, guess they figure this isn't just a spike anymore. Either that or they ran out of supply.



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Herr Haber
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[*] posted on 12-3-2020 at 03:57


Quote: Originally posted by B(a)P  
China's adoption of catalytic converters. Demand has exceeded supply for a couple of years and it is getting worse

[Edited on 15-2-2020 by B(a)P]


Worsened by the "dieselgate".




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MrHomeScientist
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[*] posted on 12-3-2020 at 13:54


I didn't plan it as an investment, but I cleaned up on rhodium recently. Bought an ounce when it was at $995/oz, and sold the bar when it was $9,985/oz :cool:

Of course now that it's over $13,000 I'm kicking myself a little!

I was actually only able to sell it for pretty significantly below spot price. The way the dealer explained it, due to the extreme high price and high volatility of rhodium, no one actually wants to buy it at spot. His buyer was paying significantly lower than spot too, so he only made about $450 from the deal. He told me because of the large spread for this metal, even if it did keep going up the difference between what people would actually pay would also increase, meaning if I had waited for the extra $3,000 I may have only actually made a few hundred.

Edit: at $13,000 an ounce, it's approaching half a million dollars for a kilo :o :o :o

[Edited on 3-12-2020 by MrHomeScientist]
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Heptylene
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[*] posted on 12-3-2020 at 15:42


The price of rhodium is absolutely nuts! One the other hand, platinum is really low right now (770 $ per oz). It hasn't been this cheap for years. And palladium dropped down to about 2k$ per oz.

Hopefully there will come a time where rhodium and palladium chemistry is affordable again...

@MrHomeScientist: How much did you manage to sell your rhodium for?
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[*] posted on 12-3-2020 at 19:17


well,if prices and demand rise even more, we might see asteroid mining sooner




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MrHomeScientist
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[*] posted on 25-3-2020 at 08:11


He bought my bar for $8,000. $2k less than spot at the time, but still a nice profit for me! I'm using it to fund another one of my hobbies.
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[*] posted on 25-3-2020 at 10:13


I did my thesis work with rhodium, and it was a point of pride that we worked with the most expensive metals around (not counting the non-radioactive ones). I remember looking up the price a few years back and was disappointed that it had dropped so much. I guess I should have bought some.



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[*] posted on 9-4-2020 at 17:18


The crazy thing about these metals is not just the volatility, it's the rampant price manipulation causing the volatility.

There are really two prices for these metals...the public price for paper goods that the speculators can go in for, and the actual price for producers of the metal. There's also a tremendous lag between the "spot" price as seen on say, Kitco, and the actual price that I would get from JM or Heraeus which is based on their customer demand and appetite.

Say for example Rh is 4000 on Kitco, coincidentally, the buy price for pure Rh is 11,000.
Sometimes it's nice, sometimes it's not.
When it was trading for 2000 on kitco, I wanted to pick some up again, but the actual price was then 8000 for physical.

Yes, I've made money on Rh on the way up. I have owned it at 800, 2200 speculatively but when it was over 5K, I moved every ounce through refining as fast as possible.

The real winner long term will be platinum.




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[*] posted on 7-3-2021 at 11:14


Well prices have whacked out to the point, that these metals may lose their real world value. Science will have to find alternates. At which point, the Metals Market, may collapse the way the wild Market, for Tulip Bulbs did.

Palladium is very useful, but 2,500 an ounce useful? This market is being driven by hidden financial insecurity, and speculation.

Ruthenium has Quadrupled in price, over just 3 or 4 years.

Platinum, one of the most useful metals, has remained relatively stable. Comparatively.

I can remember when Platinum was king at a pricey 300-400 per ounce. Palladium was a weak little sister, at 30 to 40 dollars per ounce. Gold, and perhaps Silver... were subject to speculation, but were common in personal jewelry. And, "nice" personal jewelry, was common.

Oh well.
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[*] posted on 7-3-2021 at 12:03


Catalyst technology and use shifted to Pd before and esp. after the Soviet stock was liquidated for cash that I doubt left a paper trail.

Not as economical as planned.




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metalresearcher
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[*] posted on 7-3-2021 at 12:49


Rh is now $25800 / oz which is almost $800 per gram !

Source : https://www.kitco.com/

I also think this is based on politics and speculation.

On wiki I found the reason for this ridiculously high price:

Quote:

Owners of rhodium—a metal with a highly volatile market price—are periodically put in an extremely advantageous market position: extracting more rhodium-containing ore from the ground will necessarily also extract other much more abundant precious metals—notably platinum and palladium—which would oversupply the market with those other metals, lowering their prices. Since it is economically infeasible to simply extract these other metals just to obtain rhodium, the market is often left hopelessly squeezed for rhodium supply, causing prices to spike. Recovery from this supply-deficit position may be quite problematic in the future for many reasons, notably because it is not known how much rhodium (and other precious metals) actually was placed in catalytic converters during the many years when manufacturers' emissions-cheating software was in use. Much of the world supply of rhodium is obtained from recycled catalytic converters obtained from scrapped vehicles. As of early November 2020, the spot price of rhodium was US$14,700 per troy ounce. In early March 2021, rhodium reached a price of US$29,400 per troy ounce on Metals Daily (a precious metals commodity listing).




[Edited on 2021-3-7 by metalresearcher]
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[*] posted on 7-3-2021 at 13:05


I just checked the price again, and it's nearly a million dollars per kilo. I shoulda bought some at $750/oz.



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[*] posted on 8-3-2021 at 00:05


I have an ampoule of RhCl3 (1 gram, anhydrous black crystals). It was donated to me many years ago, and I never found the time to do experiments with this chemical, so I still have it unopened. Now it feels too expensive to do any experiments with it. At the time when I received it, its value was a few tens of dollars.



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[*] posted on 9-3-2021 at 13:28


Chlororhodic acid we make is about 7-8 oz troy per liter as a product. Getting very expensive.

I think Rh is a house of cards though.

Ir, Pt, Ru are what I think will be indispensable for a while.

There's a negative recycling rate on Ir. More is lost than is recycled.




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[*] posted on 9-3-2021 at 23:06


Rhodium is crazy volatile stuff used to be $11000 Oz then dropped to$900 overnight then a few years later rose back up to where it's at now.most volatile of all the pgm's. Also if played smart the most profitable.platinum is cheap right now so if U r looking to buy now is the time. I know it's uncommon but I think there's gold to be found in the form of catalytic converters.with the price of rhodium where it is now time to light your most unliked neighbours car on fire then buy the burnt shell for Penny's on the dollar to get that converter.btw if anyone wants any pt,Au,Ag,pd metals let me know.sorry but no rhodium.yet.best prices anywhere.
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[*] posted on 9-3-2021 at 23:10


Quote: Originally posted by DraconicAcid  
I just checked the price again, and it's nearly a million dollars per kilo. I shoulda bought some at $750/oz.


I remember hearing about Bitcoin when it was $8each. If I bought fifty dollars worth back then I could buy a Ferrari now.should of could of but didn't.
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[*] posted on 9-3-2021 at 23:16


Quote: Originally posted by BromicAcid  
Exactly as B(a)P says. Also note that both are byproducts of mining for other metals so you really don't just tear more ore out of a rhodium vein when you need it. There are some interesting articles on precious metals websites about palladium and how much has been stripped out of the collectables community, it kind of acted as a reservoir of material for awhile but it looks like the only people who have it left are holding. I bet there are quite a few chemists out there feverishly working to develop a replacement catalyst composition. Let's wish them God Speed.


They are working on replacements for pgm's and it's only a matter of time. I read about copper nanoparticles on nickel or graphite or something.had something to do with the shape of the tiny nanoparticles, either donut shaped or nanotubes.somerhing like that
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[*] posted on 10-3-2021 at 06:36


If gold was ever useable as a catalyst, it'd finally get some real use instead of trinkets.
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[*] posted on 10-3-2021 at 18:54


Quote: Originally posted by Fleaker  
More is lost than is recycled.


Recycling seems to be a problem...there's a constant loop of people cutting out catalytic converters, recyclers turning them into new converters, and the new converters promptly being cut out again...lots of winners, everyone but car owners. No doubt the recyclers only buy from the highest quality middlemen.




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