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Author: Subject: Exploitation of the global economy, the coming collapse
497
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Supply and demand?

I do agree though that gold is not an inherently safe investment.
I guess the attraction to it stems from the assumption that when the dollar collapses there will need to be a new world currency to replace it. I have heard speculation that the euro could be the new standard, but that seems doubtful to me and many others, so gold is though to be the "safe bet."

 Quote: It would take a total collapse to shut down basic industries since their products would still be needed and in demand.

I wouldn't be so sure. Yes many factories will still be able make goods, and people will still demand them. The problem is that the entire system that allows the distribution and payment to take place is a house of cards nearing collapse. Yes, people will always find ways to get what they demand if given enough time. I think the period of concern is the time immediately after the collapse when the system is being rebuilt. This could take quite a long time considering how ridiculously complicated and centralized it is. It would also depend largely on where you live.

How long does shipping have to be ground to a halt before there is massive death/destruction in metropolitan areas?

 Quote: Important drugs (the ones people need to stay alive and are hard to produce)might be a good choice. The illegal ones might drop in value.

Definitely true. Koi pond medication suppliers are a good source for cheap bulk antibiotics, antiparasitics, etc. It's often in pure powder form. I really doubt the grade is much different than USP. I think gaining all the literature needed to teach ones self how to use the medications is critical. Literature about natural sources of medicines, food, etc would be very useful too.

The illegal ones will drop in initially as peoples priorities shift. Given a little time and rebuilding, the demand will definitely resume, as people will never stop wanted to be inebriated. For a while there would likely be huge shortages and the value (based on what you can trade for it) may rise. Eventually the value would drop if no organization attempts to revive the prohibition. One could conceivably acquire all the needed materials and skill to synthesize drugs expected to reach temporary high demands, wait for the shit to hit the fan, synth the drugs and make a large gain while avoiding the legal risks of doing so today. Of course other risks may arise in its stead, such as people with guns trying to take what they want.. I suppose that might call for a little "repellant chemistry" and/or energetic materials chemistry.

 Quote: Iodine or other chems for water purification or detection of contaminants?

I recommend sodium chlorite for general water sterilization. It has a great shelf life (in solid form), is an potent and effective sterilizer, doesn't form chlorinated byproducts like hypochlorite, and it is very cheap compared to the alternatives with its stability and efficacy. Test kits would be smart to acquire too. Haven't looked into that much yet.

 Quote: They said there were twice as many shooters this year as the year before, I wonder if it is related?

Some people see what's coming. The smart ones have realized the unfortunate truth of widespread firearm violence in many possible collapse scenarios. They know that guns (and the ability to use them) can be far more valuable than any gold other trade good, if only because everyone else has one.
I'd rather use my skills to do something creative to repel the aggressive ones. Trying to fight guns with guns seems stupid if you have other alternatives. I think we chemists are blessed with a plethora of alternatives.

I think the rarity of people who understand chemistry broadly and practically enough to use it to their advantage in a (post)crisis situation could allow us far more power than we could image today if the opportunities where exploited. Potentially morally objectionable, yes. Inevitable, yes. I don't think people realize just how fragile our entire moral/justice system, or how quickly people will abandon it when their kids are starving...

Be thankful you have relatively large technical knowledge, applicable to living real life* in a world that has recently devalued it, for that world might be ending soon. Devaluing it is a luxury that humanity cannot sustain.

*Real life = life where you actually spend your time doing things to directly keep yourself and family alive -vs- modern life where you spend your time doing something for someone else, that you would never normally do, just to get paid and then turn around and pay more people to do what you need for you.

[Edited on 6-9-2011 by 497]

A word to the wise: NEUROFEEDBACK

http://citizenworks.org/corp/dg/s2r1.pdf
http://www.newscientist.com/mobile/article/mg21228354.500-re...
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-spe...

"To expose a 15 Trillion dollar ripoff of the American people by the stockholders of the 1000 largest corporations over the last 100 years will be a tall order of business."
Buckminster Fuller

"No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it."
Albert Einstein
franklyn
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 Quote: Originally posted by crazyboy Gold is 1,986 times as valuable as bismuth even though it's only half as rare. Tell me how that makes sense.

To evaluate the relative value of commodities one needs to compare
things of similar worth. Although both values are depressed , a bank
repossessed bungalow has little in common to a Miami Beach Penthouse.

Bismuth is comparable to silver in occurrence and cost of production. It has
been priced higher than it is now at about what silver costs now , and silver
has more than doubled in price over the same period.
Bismuth _
www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/bi/bi.asp
Silver _
www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/ag/ag.asp

What makes a comic book worth 30 to 50 thousand dollars ?
Price is determined by demand for a desired article of limited availability.
Pharmaceutical analgesics such as Fentanyl and it's analogues are worth
many times more than their weight in gold.
Plutonium is worth it's weight in diamonds which are comparable in cost
of production and there are many with fistfuls of conflict diamonds eager
to trade for this Unobtanium.

What can you buy for a million dollars ? Not much if you shop at Pebble Beach
where a 50 year old car just sold for $16.4 million ( 14.9 + buyers premium ) Unlike Henry Ford's editions which you could have in any color so long as it 's black , Enzo Ferrari's 1957 250 Testa Rossa ( Red Head ) racer could be had in any color so long as it's red. Should one invest in red cars ? www.autoblog.com/2011/08/22/1957-ferrari-250-tr-prototype-se... Nor is this a fluke , if you bought a 250 GTO in 1961 and kept it , your investment will have increased by around 2,500 times. That's 250 000 percent. www.autoblog.com/2010/05/16/rm-auctions-sells-1963-ferrari-2... There are reports of a Bugatti sold at an invitation only auction for over 30 million. www.theweeklydriver.com/rare-ferrari-250-fetches-more-than-1... Classic and vintage automobiles as an investment have appreciated far beyond distant second place pretenders such as rare gold coins or stamps. What were in their day common place " muscle cars " from the 1960's have appreciated many thousands of percent. Originally had for a few thousand dollars new , even the most mundane are now valued over 50 times more. . gregxy National Hazard Posts: 317 Registered: 26-5-2006 Member Is Offline The fact that there is no such thing as "intrinsic value" is hard for scientific people to grasp. However it is true, things are worth exactly what some one will pay for them. Unfortunately not all vintage autos are valuable, But I remember how surprised I was to find the old Dodge I learned to drive in was worth$40K, unfortunately
it had been disposed of long ago. Of course to maintain it in the beautiful
condition required to get the 40K would have cost quite a bit.

It is also crazy how fast prices can change. Look at Rhodium, which shot
up by 10X around 2008 and then dropped back down just as fast. Its worth
less now than it was 5 years ago. Maybe it is a "buy" but it looks like its value
is impossible to predict. Platinum has also lagged behind gold and silver in
its price growth.

I really don't think the ecomomy will degenerate to a "lawless state". Very few
people want that and none that do have any power. However all the debt has
created a mess and now there is all this squabeling as everyone tries to push
it on to someone else. The trick is not to end up being the bag holder.

Endimion17
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 Quote: Originally posted by crazyboy The gold standard is pointless, the price of gold is nearly as speculative as any stock or currency, unless you need a gold cap or a wedding band. Bismuth occurs at 8.5 parts per billion on earth, gold at 4 part per billion, a measly 4.5 parts per billion difference ~47% less abundant. Yet gold costs $30,590/Kg and bismuth$15.40/Kg. Gold is 1,986 times as valuable as bismuth even though it's only half as rare. Tell me how that makes sense.

Because it's inert, has nice color and it's shiny. It makes perfect sense.

Fleaker
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Yes, us apes like shiny yellow metal. Been that way since time immemorial.

Neither flask nor beaker.

"Kid, you don't even know just what you don't know. "
--The Dark Lord Sauron
IrC
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And female apes like shiny diamonds.

“Science is but a perversion of itself unless it has as its ultimate goal the betterment of humanity.” - NIKOLA TESLA
AndersHoveland
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 Quote: Originally posted by 497 To transition to an economy not based on expansion is exactly what we need now. The few people who benifit most from the expansion based economy have realized that hunanity is nearing the ability to exist without it

The capitalistic system in the USA/Canada has its foundations in the traditional frontier, with vast expanses of cheap land available for unlimited development. Then came the automotive, and later computer technology waves.
But an expanding, "innovative" economy is simply not sustainable. There will have to be a transition to a modified form of social capitalism, which has been the case in the western european countries. Unfortunately, job opportunities are not so abundant in most of these countries, and the scandinavian countries are only an exception because they have niche economies (the phenomena cannot be reproduced on a larger scale), abundant petroleum (Norway), or vast areas of uninhabitated land with valuable metal ores (Sweden).

Also related to this thread, found this in another forum:
http://rytis.6te.net/

[Edited on 8-9-2011 by AndersHoveland]

I'm not saying let's go kill all the stupid people...I'm just saying lets remove all the warning labels and let the problem sort itself out.
gregxy
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Increasing use of technology has also eliminated many jobs.

I think it is time to shorten the work week to 32 or maybe 24 hours. This would create more jobs and more consumption which would stimulate the economy.

The problem is how to implement this on a world scale since
if it isn't done uniformly the jobs will just move to regions
with longer work weeks.

franklyn
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I related above that having a plan of action is important in the near term
but that's only a start , being resilient and adaptive in the face of adversity
will assure that you prevail long term. Sounds like advice that you read in a
fortune cookie ? Playing the odds with a reasonable expectation of risk to
reward is one thing , the trouble is that the game is fixed , you're not playing
with the full deck and there are many jokers being dealt out. Case in point
( god I sound like Rod Serling ) This article I cited above _
http://seekingalpha.com/article/291405-even-goldman-sachs-no...
disclosed that leading analysts recommended betting that the Swiss franc
would appreciate relative to the €uro. Had you moved to adopt a position
as advised , your loss was assured. Here's the joker , the Swiss just now
established a fixed exchange rate with the €uro to the Franc , which promptly
sank 9% ! in 15 minutes of trading , leaving you with no way out.
www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swi...
www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/06/us-swiss-snb-idUSTRE7851L...

Where ever there is the assurance of obscene lucre to be had , rest assured
that you will not even be allowed to have a chance to lose your gambit
since you'll be shut out.
www.thestreet.com/story/11224917/1/a-huge-housing-bargain--b...
As disclosed , if you wondered why top US banks are not lending out the
~ 1.6 Trillion dollars in reserves mostly doled out to them by the Federal
Reserve's " Quantitative easing " well now you know. Why should they
loan it to you at 3 % to buy a house cheap when they can reap that windfall
and sell that same house to you at a markup plus the 3 % on the added markup.
One possible crumb for low rollers is this Mutual fund _
http://tinyurl.com/3cg2ta3
http://investments.pimco.com/Products/pages/333.aspx
http://research.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/Mutual-Funds/S...
$1000 dollars to establish an account and deposit there after any amount over$ 50. After the down turn happens ( again ) it will be a safe haven with
nowhere to go but up. Note that after the 2008 crash the value has since
increased by 5 times.

The wisdom of the ages , 100 of them.
www.thestreet.com/story/11173297/1/100-events-that-changed-b...
Please take special note of number - 78 -

.
franklyn
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Doom and Gloom

Next Friday September 16 , 2011 will be a day remembered in market history.
It is colloquially known as quadruple witching one of four days a year when contracts
for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures
(SSF) all expire. With so much pessimism driving markets down worldwide , bank on
this triggering an epic roller coaster ride of volatility. What is ominous , this time
around is that no one is talking about it. It's as if King Kong were sitting in the room
and everyone goes about as if the big one isn't there. What trading occurs then is
minor relative to the after hours trade settlements made by computers and the
acquisition of new orders for Monday's trading. Subsequent to the cue of Friday's
events expect a wave of dysphoria to sweep across the planet as regional markets
follow in kind. The Monday after will decide if we plunge from darkness into an abyss.
It may go lower but many equities such as banks are already trading near their
liquidation value. Warren Buffet late last month bought a large chunk of Bank of
America with call options to buy more in years to come. , well why not , at $7 dollars a share how much lower can it go. The holiday spending season a little over 3 months from now will determine if things pick up or sink in the beginning of 2012 and will determine the market trend for much of the year. I'll go on record and make a wild guess , expect to see Standard & Poors Industrials down near 900 and gold to surge over$ 2200 sometime before march.

www.cnbc.com/id/44443052
www.dickdavis.com/market-outlook

[Edited on 10-9-2011 by franklyn]
497
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I guess I'll know in a few days if my timing for this thread was better than I thought...

So how bad will it get, if it is a double dip?

This seems to sum up the situation well enough:
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/double-dip-recession-...

I won't be buying any treasury bonds though.

It's too bad that a large number of people trying to do the safest thing to protect their savings (or riches) is exactly what will bring about the problems that they're afraid of. Worse, is the inevitable further consolidation of the global economy as the powerful buy up more of the world at firesale prices.

Can anyone really tell me with a straight face that the people who pull the strings on the system didn't see this coming? Yes, everyone else should have seen it too, but they aren't the ones getting paid millions to do it, so it's not surprising that they didn't. Endless streams of cheap toys make great blinders.

[Edited on 11-9-2011 by 497]

A word to the wise: NEUROFEEDBACK

http://citizenworks.org/corp/dg/s2r1.pdf
http://www.newscientist.com/mobile/article/mg21228354.500-re...
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-spe...

"To expose a 15 Trillion dollar ripoff of the American people by the stockholders of the 1000 largest corporations over the last 100 years will be a tall order of business."
Buckminster Fuller

"No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it."
Albert Einstein
woelen
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Thread Topped
11-9-2011 at 07:00
franklyn
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“ Never believe anything until it’s been officially denied.”

I'm reminded of Steve McQueen as a fireman in the film " The Towering Inferno "
tells William Holden who is unconvinced of the seriousness " it's a fire mister and
all fires are bad ". I don't have a crystal ball and that goes for any who forecast
professionally , but I do smell smoke , and where there is smoke there is fire.
Incidentally , I recall professional safety experts called that movie exaggerated ,
that safety features of modern skyscrapers would preclude such events from
happening. Fast forward to 911 , hey at least in the movie the building remained
standing ! As Robin Williams said " Reality , what a concept ! ".

So how bad can it get ? Certainly not more than it is now except more people
will be without a job for still longer before things begin to improve. That will be
the minor portion of unfortunate individuals who are caught unaware and
unprepared. But the same circumstances provide opportunity to those who
will profit in the future from the bargains that become available. Starting from at
least 25 years ago the traditional belief that every successive generation would
be " better off " than the preceding began to fall short of that expectation.
It's never universally true of course but the number who are well off has not
kept pace with an increased population. It's not exactly clear anymore what
people mean by " American Dream ". Merely remaining solvent seems like
selling it short .

.
gregxy
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The stock market in the US has been quite positive considering all the bad news, but then unemployment is good for business.

The Obama jobs plan doesn't do anything and he is going to have trouble getting it passed.

Where I am (silicon valley) the job situation appears to be improving, lots of people starting to move around again.

The danger is even more economic stratification. I'm not sure where that would lead.
Twospoons
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Mood: Full of B12 - YIPPEE!

I think chickens would make a great investment in these uncertain times. So many advantages: your stock grows all by itself, you get eggs for food, feathers for warmth, manure for fertilizer. And chickens are funny, so there will still be entertainment when TV is off air.

The wife thinks I\'m with the mistress, the mistress thinks I\'m with the wife - so I can go to my workshop and get a few things done!
dann2
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 Quote: Originally posted by Twospoons .......... your stock grows all by itself, ........

You have to purchase feed to feed them. They will not thrive on fresh air.
franklyn
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The Financial business sector , brokerages and banks have been laying off employees
non stop since summer and continuing to do so with some firms effectively being mothballed.
www.nypost.com/p/news/business/streetcuts_loom_PMadygHuWO3NY...
Does this sound to you like they expect business to pick up soon ?

One authors viewpoint
http://seekingalpha.com/article/292958-deflation-is-here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/292720-i-said-qe-3-isn-t-com...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/289610-danger-the-qe-3-hope-...
Another
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293010-where-s-the-bottom

[file]15967[/file]

Twospoons
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Quote: Originally posted by dann2
 Quote: Originally posted by Twospoons .......... your stock grows all by itself, ........

You have to purchase feed to feed them. They will not thrive on fresh air.

Not if you let them run around your back yard - they will happily find their own food - and the eggs taste better too.

The wife thinks I\'m with the mistress, the mistress thinks I\'m with the wife - so I can go to my workshop and get a few things done!
Rosco Bodine
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Mood: analytical

Solyndra is a catchy sounding name
kind of like Soylent Green or Sly Renderer.....
eats taxpayers money by the truckload and
spits out the unemployed
like watermelon seeds ....
or are they greenie weenie Obama bones

Inquiring minds want to know, will the FBI ever find out
what really happened?

Gee I don't know, this one will probably turn out to be
another oh so mysterious "who dunnit"

Here's a good one ....
How about those Gulf oil wells

[Edited on 15-9-2011 by Rosco Bodine]
Mr. Wizard
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The money most likely went to an ACORN subsidiary or some hidden safe bank account in Chicago. Nothing will happen till the Attorney General E. Holder gets the boot. When they pry his fingers off the desk, maybe for the Fast and Furious fiasco, the turd jam will break and they can all spiral down the toilet. Unbelievable ....
Twospoons
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It wasn't just the $500M in fed money either - saw an article saying they had raised$1B in private equity and loans too.

The wife thinks I\'m with the mistress, the mistress thinks I\'m with the wife - so I can go to my workshop and get a few things done!
Mr. Wizard
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Yes, and as I understand it, the $550M loans were set up in such a way, as to give the 'private investors' first grabs at any assets, leaving the taxpayers left holding an empty bag. The timing of the$550M loan was so close to the shutdown, you have to wonder if they just kept the doors of the place open long enough to get the 'loan'. A look at the names of the private investors who owned the most, would be an interesting read, and an insight into the crony capitalism and corruption running this country.
Rosco Bodine
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Mood: analytical

Wait a minute, is this a "new" Obummer administrative concept to effect esssentially FDIC "depositors insurance" for stockholders in "selected" green energy companies ? Interesting concept of "investment incentives" there,
and I'm wondering if it dovetails somehow with other "possible?" political favoritism reflected in the "administrative concept" shown recently towards Gibson guitar company, or the middle of the night unpublicized granting of executive clemency/amnesty "status" to 300,000 "selected" illegal aliens. Any honest person must wonder if maybe there is some money changing hands or being diverted in favored directions behind the scenes or if somehow there was a particular political bias at work there. It seems there is a very curiously oriented use of government assets and government agencies and regulations and law enactments and law enforcements which has no order of prioritization according to any plausible rhyme or reason for "best economy" involving use of assets,
but really is motivated by some sort of political bias that involves a curious
"thermodynamic principle" Obummer "regime" supporters seem to be counting their rewards in taxpayer supplied "stimulus" and experiencing no
regulatory or other inconvenient or expensive headaches, almost as if they had "paid protection" and had an "insurance policy" in effect via a bargain with a crime syndicate or a crime cartel which has government "connections", while any opponents of the Obummer administration are instead "feeling the heat".

Attorney General Holder really ought to investigate that kind of corruption, since there's just no telling how high up in the "administration" it might go, and surely such an investigation needs a seriously dedicated "crime buster" like Holder to supervise and discover and root out any corruption in the Obummer administration wherever it may be found. Yeah, it could even involve an internal affairs investigation of a situation like this, where there's just no telling how far the scandal might go and who might be involved. Maybe congress should create a committee to study the matter and get back to us on it

franklyn
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So what is your idea of a sterling company favored by our government , Halliburton ?
See heading => 2000s , here _ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halliburton

.
Rosco Bodine
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Halliburton isn't taking the country down into the economic abyss. Halliburton is a profit making industry that accomplishes some things that are real and sometimes things nobody else can do. For a fact if Halliburton had a 500 million handout from the taxpayers to build a refinery or anything else it wanted to do, including a solar energy project, the whole country would be better off for how Halliburton spent the money and actually got the job done. So yeah based on proven performance as a bona fide profitable company that fulfills its goals criteria I do indeed think Halliburton would be a sterling good company to be "favored" by anyone, except for Marxist crooks who are peddling bogus green technology, socialized medicine, and other absolutely idiotic, harebrained, and totally dishonest scams ...ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. Halliburton all the way. Give me Halliburton any day, you betcha. Ford Motor Company is another one I would take any day, as a good bet, if for no other reason than they listened to what Nancy Reagan said to do when it comes to coke addled Marxist commie dope pushers ......Just say No!
AndersHoveland
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In my opinion, the most realistic strategy to reduce dependance on petroleum is to use liquified methane in cars, and especially trucks. Although free markets do have a role, the government has a part to play in initiating the transition, to fund methane fuel stations. No individual company in the private sector has much incentive tio be the first to develop it, because the greatest costs will be incurred by the first to enter the market, while any subsequent companies will reap the benefits of the other companies investment. Unfortunately, this is often how new technology interacts with the market, and why government should have a role. But of course the government does not have a good record of picking the winners and losers.

Suppose company A spends money developing a network of fuel stations to make methane powered cars a realistic option. It may likely be several years before the idea catches on. But after it does, company B will be able to quickly build methane fuel stations, and reap most of the benefits from company's A risk and tears of waiting. So company A has little incentive to develop something that it will not be able to reap all the benefits from. Another idea would be to grant a monopoly to a large corporation that is willing to make the investment, but there is always the danger that such a company would neglect its responsibilities, or unfairly take over the future market, or fall under the influence of oil companies that want things to stay the way things presently are.

Methane fuel would be cheaper than longer chain petroleum products if its scale of distribution was increased. Methane also has less pollution, and less CO2. The only complication is fairly high-pressure fuel tanks. Natural gas cars can already be found on the road. More peope would buy if there were more methane fuel stations. This is very much an example of extraneous costs, and "common benefits" from a commercial service/product, and it is these situations where private markets are not efficient.

[Edited on 15-9-2011 by AndersHoveland]
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