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Author: Subject: Unforeseen Consequences of Pb(CH2CH3)4 Tetraethyl lead exposure
franklyn
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[*] posted on 5-1-2013 at 20:29
Unforeseen Consequences of Pb(CH2CH3)4 Tetraethyl lead exposure


The end of the use of leaded gasoline may be the cause of the fall of violent crime
over the past 25 years. Epidemiological research linking lead exposure in small
children with myriad complications later in life , including lower IQ , hyperactivity ,
behavioral problems , and learning disabilities , suggested a link between childhood
lead exposure and juvenile delinquency later on. Had lead exposure an effect on
violent crime also ?

www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gaso...
Scroll down to - In 1994 Rick Nevin was a consultant - for the essentials.

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AndersHoveland
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[*] posted on 6-1-2013 at 03:23


The evidence clearly shows that African Americans were exposed to much higher levels of the substance than the rest of the population.

http://news.usc.edu/#!/article/30523/Study-Finds-Disparities...

[Edited on 6-1-2013 by AndersHoveland]




I'm not saying let's go kill all the stupid people...I'm just saying lets remove all the warning labels and let the problem sort itself out.
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arsphenamine
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[*] posted on 6-1-2013 at 11:00


These are primary documents from which the Mother Jones article is drawn.

Nevin's 2000 study on lead and violent crime in the US

Nevin's 2007 study on lead and international violent crime

Meilke's study on lead exposure in major US cities

With correlation factors ~0.90, I'd have to say that causation is indisputable.

New Orleans' violent crime rates and firearm deaths are the highest in the US, in accord with the lead exposure levels.

Several bills before Congress seek to relax standards on tetraethyl lead use. Far be it from me to label these bills' sponsors as dangerous psychopaths requiring permanent censure.
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franklyn
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[*] posted on 10-1-2013 at 10:08
Related thread


www.sciencemadness.org/talk/viewthread.php?tid=23011
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AJKOER
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[*] posted on 3-2-2013 at 13:37


I would believe your argument more if you examined the crime rates in Boston over time. This city instituted smart programs (after school study, lunch, summer programs,...) which reduced crime. If lead exposure was about the same as a peer of other cities where crime rates remained unchanged, your hypothesis is void.


[Edited on 3-2-2013 by AJKOER]
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AndersHoveland
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[*] posted on 3-2-2013 at 18:52


Lead exposure is only one factor, there are others also...
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franklyn
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[*] posted on 6-2-2013 at 08:26


www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2141160/Born-bad-Rap...

www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2273857/Neurologist-...

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unionised
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[*] posted on 4-6-2013 at 10:25


Quote: Originally posted by arsphenamine  


With correlation factors ~0.90, I'd have to say that causation is indisputable.
.

I wouldn't.
How about the relation between world jet fuel consumption
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=jet-fuel&g...

and mobile 'phone ownership in the developed world
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mobile_phone_subscribers_p...

which give a correlation coefficient of 0.87

Do you think 'phone ownership causes fuel use or is the causation the other way round?

It's easy to play this game, find two values that both have a tendency to trend with a third value- time is usually the easiest)- then plot them against eachother and calculate the correlation coefficient.

Here's a similar joke
http://xkcd.com/925/
Now imagine what plots of crime rate vs poverty and lead exposure vs poverty would look like.

I dare say lead exposure has an effect but I think other effects are bigger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding

[Edited on 4-6-13 by unionised]
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12AX7
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[*] posted on 4-6-2013 at 15:34


FSMism and the rate of piracy :P



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