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Author: Subject: Ebola
macckone
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[*] posted on 21-10-2014 at 23:41


No new news on the Newark passenger other than he was
running a fever and had been in Liberia. Apparently no other
symptoms were reported. This article has a lot of good
information including confirmation that the second nurse
from Dallas is improving:

http://www.northjersey.com/news/passenger-at-newark-airport-...
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macckone
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 09:13


Newark passenger tested negative for the virus:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/airline-passenger-with-ebola-...

This leaves the contacts of the two dallas nurses
and anyone who is asymptomatic that has traveled
from Africa (like the chicago family in voluntary quarantine).
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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 09:39


The horror of the disease ebola is illustrated by the story of a young mother who was nursing an infant, became sick with ebola and came to a clinic in Sierra Leone seeking help, but died, leaving the infant who tested negative and was then cared for by a dozen nurses. The baby later developed ebola symptoms and died, and eleven of a dozen nurses who were caring for the baby also became infected and most of them also died. It is like an irony where no good deed goes unpunished. A dozen nurses have compassion and care for an orphan baby, who dies anyway, and 11 of the 12 nurses became infected and also died. That is pretty horrible.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/when-c...

http://www.npr.org/2014/10/10/354888965/when-holding-an-orph...

This story illustrates pretty well how R nought doesn't tell you the whole story and can be misleading.

[Edited on 23-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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IrC
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 11:07


Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine  
This story illustrates pretty well how R nought doesn't tell you the whole story and can be misleading.


Even more misleading if there is even a small amount of truth in the following story. One would assume the value assigned to R nought would only be as accurate as the honesty in the number of reported cases.

http://www.infowars.com/medical-professional-health-authorit...

http://www.infowars.com/missouri-doctor-suspected-ebola-pati...

http://www.infowars.com/hospitals-threaten-to-fire-workers-f...

Brought to you by the site many here love to hate. Myself I look at all things I can and study to see what can be verified regardless of peoples opinion of the source. For example looking at the doctor mentioned in the story for useful grains of truth. Not hard if you ignore any bias by the writer of the story and study only the useful information. Infowars may have far too many conspiracy theories on the part of the writers yet they do discuss so many things you no longer see anywhere in mainstream media today. So many agendas exist on either side of the coin you must become expert at filtering out the grains of truth which do exist.


[Edited on 10-23-2014 by IrC]




"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 11:10


I think when you consider the federal law makes even research sample handling highly regulated and restricted to BSL-4 laboratory conditions for what is listed on the CDC website as being a class A bioterrorism agent .......and realize that this level of security applies to samples in test tubes .....the idea of a human subject walking around shedding virus is something unthinkable and unimaginably dangerous as a threat to public health, it is really something terrible to ponder the implications and potentially catastrophic consequences.
When that has been pretty much accepted for decades is the "real story" then it becomes very suspicious when overnight an entirely "rewritten" risk analysis and risk management is published by p.r. mouthpieces contradicting what is already good information well known. Political spin doctors are attempting to write a new narrative saying things are not really so bad about something the real story is it is really pretty terrible is an old story already very well known.
When people know they are being conned it doesn't inspire trust and confidence.
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 13:29


while the inforwars website may be full of crackpots, this article
http://www.infowars.com/scientists-ebola-can-spread-by-air-i...
(mentioned earlier by IRC) which talks about how ebola may be more contagious in colder areas, simply cites reliable references.

On the positive side the vaccines are coming along quickly. I hope this is not hype.
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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 14:41


Uh Oh .....there may be a case in Harlem ......New York City is definitely not a good place for ebola

http://www.nydailynews.com/doctor-treated-ebola-patients-rus...

There are some similarities about HIV and ebola

http://www.westernjournalism.com/miraculous-liberian-doctor-...

Breaking News: The doctor in New York City has tested positive for ebola and he has been out and about town during the last twenty-four hours even visiting a bowling alley and taking various taxi cabs around town. He was supposed to be self quarantined but like another doctor who works for NBC news went off the reservation and breached quarantine. This is not good.

[Edited on 24-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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IrC
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 17:12


Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine  
Uh Oh .....there may be a case in Harlem ......New York City is definitely not a good place for ebola

http://www.nydailynews.com/doctor-treated-ebola-patients-rus...

There are some similarities about HIV and ebola

http://www.westernjournalism.com/miraculous-liberian-doctor-...


Just watched news alert the doctor tested positive for Ebola. 10 days of cruising around the city, going bowling the day before, shopping and whatever else. Now I ask would not one expect a doctor who had been working with Ebola patients in Africa to be cognizant enough of the risk to self quarantine under such circumstances? Is anyone foolish enough to believe they cannot spread it until the day obvious symptoms appear? If so I call bullcrap on that. For all is known they could be spreading it 3 or 4 days before they start bleeding and vomiting. This PC madness of allowing people back in until proven safe will kill us all. Did someone just come from infected areas especially if working with it? Then stay the hell on an island such as Ellis for a month then call us. This is what people 100 years ago were smart enough to require and something as deadly as Ebola was not loose in the world. Amazing how people in the 21st century think they are more advanced than Victorian society yet this generation is comprised of the most ignorant morons history has ever known. More so because they had the information available and chose to ignore it.

Rosco you edited while I was quoting your post in it's original form. Oh well call it yet another notice of confirmation.

http://www.infowars.com/doctor-obamas-open-border-policy-fue...

http://www.infowars.com/u-s-army-ebola-goes-airborne-once-te...

http://www.infowars.com/will-media-ignore-doctors-reporting-...

http://www.infowars.com/white-house-emergency-alert-interrup...




[Edited on 10-24-2014 by IrC]




"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 17:18


Yeah CBS and others are reporting they have confirmed ebola in NYC now.

Isn't cultural diversity and unrestricted travel grand? Ummm ....no.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-nyc-doctor-being-...

They are activating the emergency operations center in New York now so this is serious.

[Edited on 24-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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plante1999
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 18:28


If it degenerate in a apocalyptic scenario, all the prepers out there (sort of me included) will finally be able to show off if they can survive.

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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 18:28


Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine  
Yeah CBS and others are reporting they have confirmed ebola in NYC now.

Isn't cultural diversity and unrestricted travel grand? Ummm ....no.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-nyc-doctor-being-...

They are activating the emergency operations center in New York now so this is serious.

[Edited on 24-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]


Honestly, I am happier that this guy decided to go and treat ebola patients than I am upset that he brought it back to the United States. The last guy that came to the United States and had the disease took far less precaution than this man, who quarantined himself as soon as he suspected he had it, and he only infected 2 poorly trained/informed people. New York's making sure they don't half-ass anything, and as a result, everything will most likely turn out a-okay. Yes, it's great that we can be so multicultural and have free travel and still get off nearly scot-free.

Edit: Oh, and apparently Amber Vinson has already tested Ebola-free just 9 days after her diagnosis, and Nina Pham is in good condition, well on her way to recovery. I can already feel our country collapsing.

[Edited on 10-24-2014 by No Tears Only Dreams Now]




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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 23-10-2014 at 18:47


When it comes to security concerns including public health threats it is sober realism and caution that is rational and prudent, not the Pollyanna principle.

Ask anyone who has survived ebola if they would agree an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

The answer is going to be "affirmative".

And remember ebola is hard to catch. See it is because it is so hard to catch that the doctor who caught it anyway dresses in protective gear like this at work. Here is a recent photo of the now infected doctor all dressed up in protective gear on account of ebola being so hard to catch.

Also four of the infected doctors friends have been quarantined and hundreds of other people are attempting to be identified and contacted, all of this being done of course because ebola is so hard to catch. See, since it is so hard to catch there is really nothing to worry about, obviously.



[Edited on 24-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 01:35


It's removing that gear after a shift where the risk is greatest, especially after dealing with leaky patients.



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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 06:25


We gotta admire all these volunteer workers for epidemics without borders
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Amos
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 07:04


Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine  
We gotta admire all these volunteer workers for epidemics without borders


Yeah, they're probably all filthy liberals, too.




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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 08:20


I'm sure the liability lawyers will sort it all out with the inevitable lawsuits.
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macckone
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 09:37


Rosco> the doctors in Liberia only wish they had protective gear
like that picture has. Sierra Leon is apparently better but by
all accounts the situation in Guinea is worse from a supply
perspective.

Most people are dressed more like this:
http://simusa.org/data/sites/1/LatestNews/2014/04-03-14_Ebol...

The most dangerous time for spreading Ebola is apparently
when the vomiting and bleeding starts. Although the disease
is hard to get (ie. casual contact isn't likely to do it) working with
patients that have reached the most contagious stage has to
be scary. Anyone willing to try and help infected people is a
hero, including the two nurses in Dallas that were infected.

The doctor in NYC was quite selfish in violating 'self-quarantine'
assuming the reports are true. Keeping in mind they may not
be true. This situation is still evolving and only 3 people have been quarantined in relation to the doctor.
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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 10:54


Where deadly contagious diseases are concerned it is reasonable that risk avoidance would create a corresponding riak aversion kind of mentality that would place more emphasis on prevention. Just the economic unviability of the more risk tolerant view should tip the scales in favor of caution.

Individuals can't be relied upon to exercise good judgement and act responsibly with something like ebola where even the medical doctors are showing a kind of recklessness and irresponsiblity which has consequential dangers and/or damages for others who are not consenting to that imposition. There really is a liability associated with actions that can reasonably be identified as reckless endangerment and it involves both liability at law as a crime, as well as liability in equity as a tort. Individuals can't just weigh the risks for others and then make the decision on their own what it is that they reckon to be acceptable risks for others. That is the kind of "selfishness" that is going on here when ebola or anything like it is being trifled with as a matter left entirely in the realm of the administrative discretion of others. What they estimate may be their "power" to decide for others over the objections of others is a dispute that is headed for a reckoning, and the reckless people who aren't enough risk averse are going to get a reality check on how it's going to be. Go ahead and watch and see how this unfolds and see if the lawyers don't file the lawsuits that will put a stop to this nonsense, where defective public health policies are subject to "product liability" lawsuits just like anything else that is a dangerous and defective product, or even if it simply wrongly causes unreimbursed damages and/or even deprives others of peace of mind and happiness.

Lawyers are going to love filing all the lawsuits over damaged businesses, lost property values, emotional distress, and all the collateral damages that reach far beyond just the suffering of those who are actually infected due to the negligence and depraved indifference of those who are liable. They better have good insurance.
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macckone
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 13:22


In most states you can't use the government for anything
beyond direct damages and in some state (Texas) even direct
damages are severely limited. In Texas for example damages
are limited to 100k and that applies per incident even if 20
people are killed. It also applies to anyone acting as an agent of
state county or local government. It also applies to hospitals
treating the indigent. Under federal law government employees
are immune to suit unless they violate agency rules.
The government itself is immune to suit except in cases of
gross negligence. Further lawsuits are limited to direct damages.
In Colorado hospitals themselves are basically immune to suit
but doctors are fair game. This varies a lot between states.
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[*] posted on 24-10-2014 at 22:36


I am really interested in what experimental treatments are being used in the U.S. cases, and when we may get enough data (Africa) to compare palliative rehydration therapy with blood transfusion, plasma antibodies, and antivirals.
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[*] posted on 25-10-2014 at 02:11


Anyone have an opinion on if the lamivudine works? There is one hit on pubmed of it and ebola, but I can't read the article.
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[*] posted on 25-10-2014 at 04:52


Quote: Originally posted by gregxy  
Anyone have an opinion on if the lamivudine works? There is one hit on pubmed of it and ebola, but I can't read the article.
There is absolutely no known mechanistic reason to expect any efficacy whatsoever. Ebola is an RNA virus, single stranded, similar to retroviruses (I mistakenly missed a "like" earlier in the thread, calling Ebolavirus a retrovirus... it is a filovirus, which can mutate similar to a retrovirus) including HIV, but it incorporates into the host genome differently.

The L protein is distinct from reverse transcriptase, which is lamivudine's target receptor in HIV and some hepatitis. There may be an off target effect in play here, but it seems highly dubious. This is why a clinical trial would be necessary to statistically convince people to start the process of radio ligand testing, purification, and/or assay development.

Antibody analysis for conserved sequences actually seems very promising from what I am reading. Some antibody regions appear conserved in all known Marburg/Ebola strains, apparently.
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[*] posted on 25-10-2014 at 09:16


Thanks for your response,

After more reading I see that ebola is a negative sense RNA virus.
Lamivudine is used to treat HIV and Hep-C which are positive sense RNA viruses. So the mechanism of integration into the host cell would be completely different.

Influenza is a negative sense RNA virus, so antivirals for influenza would be a better fit, but still unlikely to work since ebola and influenza are so different.

Developing an antiviral would be hard, but I guess more resistant to mutation since the enzymes that integrate the viral RNA into the cell would be more conserved than the envelope proteins.

It seems like developing vaccines these days should be almost a "cookie cutter" procedure due to the development of the sequencing and synthesis techniques. Yet there is no vaccine for HIV or Hep-C, i guess they mutate too fast? Does ebola mutate too fast to make a vaccine effective?

Looking for conserved sequences in the antibodies is really clever.

[Edited on 25-10-2014 by gregxy]
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[*] posted on 25-10-2014 at 09:38
Russia


add this to the mix.

http://tinyurl.com/ozn93ve
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[*] posted on 25-10-2014 at 11:09


I think they found the index 0 patient deep in Africa. While the Russians and probably the Americans worked with Ebola as a weapon, the outbreak seems consistent with a wild virus.

At first it seemed short sighted not to have developed a vaccine or antiviral ahead of time. However without knowing the precise strain this would be have been difficult to do.

Sarcasm:
The Haj finished on Oct 7th. If it didn't get spread there then we know the Israelis were not involved.
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