RogueRose
International Hazard
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Determining historical global production of NiCd batteries - where to start?
I'm doing some research into various recycling issues and came across some products which are not accepted "under any circumstance" by some large
recyclers and NiCd/NiMH are one of them, if not the major one. Some places are charging up to $2/lb to take these batteries IF they even accept them!
Now IDK if these places have some arraingement with other recyclers who actually pay them for them, so they are collecting on both ends (very
possible in this business). I know my local E-waste pays a very large amount of their proceeds from scrap just to get rid of the NiCd's (not
including shipping!).
I'm trying to find some numbers on what the global production was for NiCd/NiMH over the 25+ years that they were the market leader for rechargables.
The thing is, after almost an hour of searching, I haven't found much of anything on production levels either in battery quantity or consumption of
elements.
Anyone have any ideas on where to look to track this type of thing down?
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AJKOER
Radically Dubious
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For rough estimates, work backward based on data for say Cd (or Ni) contamination level in water sources.
Perform a regression analysis for not too current years linking Ni/Cd battery production to contamination levels probably with a multi year lag effect
(for example, a spike in battery sales in year 6 may be observed as contributing to years 7 to 10 growth in Cd pollution). You then do a reverse
regression to estimate battery sales based on pollution levels in other geographic areas and total sale numbers. This is akin to a missing data
problem in statistics using auxiliary data that is believed to be correlated (like more sales, means more dumping, increased leaching into water
sources, and finally tested higher levels of Cd).
Get the statistical standard deviation estimates for the regression coefficients. From there derive an estimate (or expected distribution) of sales. I
would use Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the latter.
Assumption: There is a constant % of Ni/Cd batteries that are improperly dumped which eventually find there way into the local water supply.
You may be able to improve your analysis by looking at the % of just Ni/Cd versus all battery sales for whatever available data you can obtain.
Also, the sale of electrical devices may be correlated to Ni/Cd sales/consumption.
You could develop multiple point estimates (with their standard deviations SDi) and select the estimate with the lowest standard deviation or use a
weighted of all the point estimates. The recommended weight for mean point i is 1/SDi / (Sum of all 1/SDi ).
[Edited on 23-8-2018 by AJKOER]
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SWIM
National Hazard
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Quote: Originally posted by AJKOER  | For rough estimates, work backward based on data for say Cd (or Ni) contamination level in water sources.
Perform a regression analysis for not too current years linking Ni/Cd battery production to contamination levels probably with a multi year lag effect
(for example, a spike in battery sales in year 6 may be observed as contributing to years 7 to 10 growth in Cd pollution). You then do a reverse
regression to estimate battery sales based on pollution levels in other geographic areas and total sale numbers. This is akin to a missing data
problem in statistics using auxiliary data that is believed to be correlated (like more sales, means more dumping, increased leaching into water
sources, and finally tested higher levels of Cd).
Get the statistical standard deviation estimates for the regression coefficients. From there derive an estimate (or expected distribution) of sales. I
would use Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the latter.
Assumption: There is a constant % of Ni/Cd batteries that are improperly dumped which eventually find there way into the local water supply.
You may be able to improve your analysis by looking at the % of just Ni/Cd versus all battery sales for whatever available data you can obtain.
Also, the sale of electrical devices may be correlated to Ni/Cd sales/comsumption.
[Edited on 23-8-2018 by AJKOER] |
HA HA,
Then all you have to do is subtract all OTHER cadmium contamination (rusting Cad plated hardware would be a big one. It's a very common coating on
nuts, bolts, and etc), to get the right answer.
That's about as useful as just finding the earth's original estimated cadmium reserves, subtracting the earth's current estimated cadmium reserves,
and assuming it was all used for batteries.
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AJKOER
Radically Dubious
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Registered: 7-5-2011
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Yes, I agree, but you still can use the % of just Ni/Cd batteries to all battery sales for whatever available data you can obtain.
And also, the sale of electrical devices may be correlated to Ni/Cd sales/consumption through the correlation to all battery sales.
Use missing data techniques to plug in holes when Ni/Cd data is N/A but industry data is known.
That being said, my limited knowledge of the electronic device sales suggest short cycles for products which may no longer even consume Ni/Cd
batteries due in part to a trend to more green products.
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Bert
Super Administrator
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Mood: " I think we are all going to die. I think that love is an illusion. We are flawed, my darling".
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Call the battery mfg. trade group, ask the people who make their living off the tech.
I have not bought a tool with NiCd batteries since 2003.
Rapopart’s Rules for critical commentary:
1. Attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly and fairly that your target says: “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it
that way.”
2. List any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement).
3. Mention anything you have learned from your target.
4. Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.
Anatol Rapoport was a Russian-born American mathematical psychologist (1911-2007).
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