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Chemosynthesis
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Quote: Originally posted by gregxy  | At first it seemed short sighted not to have developed a vaccine or antiviral ahead of time. However without knowing the precise strain this would be
have been difficult to do.
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In addition to antigenic mutations, there is evidence that many viruses, including Ebola, interact with immune cell signaling and interfere with
aspects of the human immune system, so sometimes a vaccine for a specific strain of a virus may not even be effective.
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gregxy
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For your bug-out bag:
SERM's (selective estrogen receptor modulator) have been shown to inhibit ebola mice and human cells in vito. 90% of mice survived on clomiphene. The
drugs are easily available on the web as "research chemicals" Body builders use them to suppress negative effects of steroids.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3955358/
The dose for mice is 60mg/Kg. Converting to a human dose based on
the body surface area model would be 350mg for a 70Kg human.
The typical dosing for the drug is 50 mg.
Its a very interesting article (by the US army). Who would have thought that a drug that effects an estrogen receptor would have anything to do with a
disease like this? It also alludes to the special ebloas that have been developed (one that is fluorescent, one for mice etc) to understand how the
disease works.
[Edited on 27-10-2014 by gregxy]
[Edited on 27-10-2014 by gregxy]
[Edited on 27-10-2014 by gregxy]
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Rosco Bodine
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My earlier prediction that a huge legal mess and litigation is going to be an aspect of management the public health threat presented by ebola is
absolutely proving true. The lawyers have jumped into the middle of this with a tug of war now between the common sense risk averse population and
security conscious leaders who are at odds with the reckless "nothin' to worry about" crowd of Pollyanna's who are the typical lying, cognitively
challenged to the point of being plainly insane "liberals" who are simply in denial about the "ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" aspect of
sensible countermeasures to what could be their planting of the seeds for a pandemic.
In the liberal language that seeks to parse analysis of the ebola pandemic risk in terms that serve propaganda of liberal confirmation bias, the state
propaganda ministries which are the main stream media propagandists are already reading their script using terminology to spin things in favor of
"open borders" and favoring recklessly unrestricted personal liberties, not even subject to rational limits being imposed to protect society at large.
This seems to be a truly ironic logical disconnect among that class of persons who would generally be arguing vigorously in support of whatever they
think serves "the collective". I suppose that the idea of a "special class" of persons, in this case potential contagious disease carriers being
correctly identified as a potential threat which must be managed accordingly with great caution, is something which the defective thinking of a
liberal can't accept as a prudent exception for personal liberty that must be made in the interest of public health that is a bona fide public
security exception.
There is often heard the liberal mantra that every person should be able to "do their own thing" whatever that may be so long as it isn't hurting
someone else ....who cares? By extension it seems there is an absolutism about that liberal view uncomprimising even in the face of a danger that
could kill people on an incalculable massive scale. The FACT of that danger can't be reconciled with the irrational liberal view, so now the
proponents of that view resort to simply lying about the inherent danger as a response to the very public outcry.
The extensive medical and scientific literature about ebola has repeatedly classed ebola as a disease threat which is contagious and lethal enough to
qualify it as a bioterrorism agent, an unequivocal BSL-4 containment protocol pathogen. There is not enough politically motivated quackery and
propaganda whitewash to rewrite the history of what is known about ebola and make it seem okay to suddenly regard it as a lesser threat than exactly
what it is.
Ebola is not a disease which is indigenous to North America, but is here only because it was imported............
like the Kudzu vine, and illegal aliens.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure......especially when there is no cure.
People too stupid to understand this are unfit for administrative and management positions of authority.
Breaking news: It seems New York may have another case of ebola in New York City at Bellevue, this time a child who is reportedly in bad shape
http://nypost.com/2014/10/27/5-year-old-boy-being-tested-for...
Now if this child tests positive, it is more than just a "breach of protocol" like the CDC would be describing for the exposure of nurses in Dallas,
that would be already occurring for the family and others in the Bronx since this child was infectious before being brought to the hospital.
Since there is no effecting forecasting what persons coming into the country from a hot zone may already be infected or at what point they become
infectious to others, the only countermeasure to that grave risk presented as an unknown is the use of isolation and quarantine. For any reasoning
person this common sense conclusion is what is commonly known as a "no brainer".
Yet it seems to be a huge mystery and perplexity for the liberal mind. Now why would that be?
Other news shows that Italy, and reportedly Spain and Germany also, are implementing mandatory quarantine for U.S. troops returning to their bases
from their relief mission in the ebola hot zones. Today in Italy, the U.S. commanding general of the ebola relief mission along with his contingent
of troops, landed to a reception contingent of Italian authorities clad in full biohazard gear who met the general's aircraft and escorted the general
and his troops to a quarantine facility where there will be enforced a 21 day detention for quarantine. Contrast this level of sensible caution shown
by some european countries with the more reckless approach and policy of the CDC and U.S. administration, which opposes a mandatory quarantine and a
travel ban. Sensible public health policies by more prudent and more cautious world leaders are not following the model of reckless abandon which
seems to be more "stylish" to the liberal minds that declare what will be policy in the U.S.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-ebola-commander-...
[Edited on 27-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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IrC
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http://www.infowars.com/ebola-can-survive-for-months-on-surf...
http://www.infowars.com/cdc-says-ebola-droplets-can-only-tra...
If only the sites considered conspiracy nuts are posting real, relevant to the point of being important news, then what do we call the sites that say
none of this?
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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When you look at the decontamination activities which involved hosing off buildings and parking lots with strong bleach and removing contents of
residences .....furniture, clothing, personal belongings, carpeting, ect. and burning those materials .....it becomes evident that what the health
authorities know about ebola and what is being told to the public as a psychological propaganda operation intended to avoid a panic.....is quite a
contrasting set of different information. The government and the propaganda ministry / news media are blowing sunshine up peoples' asses about the
actual danger of ebola because they are trying to prevent a panic, and trying to reduce the blow back from the people against the reckless policies of
stupid administrators whose incompetency for making medical decisions for others is being showcased in an embarrassingly public way. Ebola is being
brought to America by the same imbeciles who brought Obamacare, and a threat to public health is presented by each as a center stage performance of
government incompetence and hubris.
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IrC
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A warned informed public will more often take steps to reduce the spread out of mere self preservation. An ignorant of the facts public will be
spreading Ebola out of ignorance, lack of knowledge on how better to protect oneself and misunderstanding each specific risk-incident. In effect the
government is creating the danger.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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macckone
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Irc> the first paper is misrepresented in that it say the virus can survive in fluids at reduced temperatures for up to 50 days. Ie a blood soaked
sheet at 29F. The surface survival time without substantial fluid is negligible according to the paper. The basic surface survival time is related
to fluid evaporation. A pool of blood will be contagious for days but a small droplet may be minutes. Oxidation also plays a role here. An oxygen
free environment prolongs the virus life.
The second article isn't Ebola specific. See the first paper for survival time. Note that it is related to evaporation rate. For smaller aerosols,
the droplets may travel but without sufficient hydration and rapid oxidation the virus dies. So in a sneeze the virus is fighting against travel time
of the droplets. Also coughing does not provide the same spreading power as sneezing but the droplets are larger and more likely to allow the virus
to survive some distance. Also note that there are no documented cases of aerosol transmission (vs droplet). Not that it can't happen it just seems
rare given the data.
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S.C. Wack
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| Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine | | My earlier prediction that a huge legal mess and litigation is going to be an aspect of management the public health threat presented by ebola is
absolutely proving true. The lawyers have jumped into the middle of this with a tug of war now between the common sense risk averse population and
security conscious leaders who are at odds with the reckless "nothin' to worry about" crowd of Pollyanna's who are the typical lying, cognitively
challenged to the point of being plainly insane "liberals" who are simply in denial about the "ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/health-ebola-usa-e...
Oct 28 (Reuters) - A father sued a Connecticut elementary school on Tuesday, saying his 7-year-old daughter was discriminated against and banned
from school for 21 days based on irrational fears of Ebola because she attended a wedding in Nigeria.
Stephen Opayemi filed the lawsuit in federal court in New Haven, Connecticut. He asked a judge to order the schools in Milford, Connecticut, to
immediately permit his daughter to return to her third-grade class...
The Connecticut third-grader, Ikeoluwa Opayemi, traveled to and from Lagos, Nigeria, between Oct. 2 and Oct. 13, according to the lawsuit. Her father,
a native of Nigeria, also went.
Jonathan Berchem, the Milford city attorney, said he had not seen the suit and could not comment on it. Elizabeth Feser, the school superintendent,
did not return a call requesting comment but said in an email she had not been served with the suit.
African communities in the United States have reported an increasing amount of ostracism since the Ebola epidemic began. At least two speeches by
Liberians have been canceled by U.S. universities, and a college in Texas refused admission to Nigerian students over worries about the virus...
Opayemi's suit was filed under the Americans with Disabilities Act. The law prohibits discrimination based on someone having a physical or mental
impairment, or on the belief that someone has such an impairment.
Milford officials refused the father's offer to have both himself and his daughter screened for Ebola, the suit says.
According to the suit, a city health official said in an Oct. 15 meeting that the risk of the girl infecting anyone was minor but that she
ought to be quarantined because of rumors, panic and the climate of the school...
Of course the kid will enjoy the time off and everything's going to be rainbows and sunshine all around
of course more so if the whole family was quietly euthanized instead and their house torched
we've done the math
fearfearfear
I'd prefer going back to red commie fear days when no one thought anything about kids in the back of a 60 mph pickup, much less them wearing seat
belts. If that makes me liberal then apparently I'm another one of "them".
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IrC
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| Quote: Originally posted by S.C. Wack | | I'd prefer going back to red commie fear days when no one thought anything about kids in the back of a 60 mph pickup, much less them wearing seat
belts. If that makes me liberal then apparently I'm another one of "them". |
Not a liberal, just another normal 60's American, is how I grew up. Is how everyone I know over 45 grew up. Nothing wrong with that I loved those
years and way of living. At least I did not say it makes you an Arkansas redneck (they grew up the same way as well).
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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| Quote: Originally posted by S.C. Wack | | I'd prefer going back to red commie fear days when no one thought anything about kids in the back of a 60 mph pickup, much less them wearing seat
belts. If that makes me liberal then apparently I'm another one of "them". |
Those ridiculous red commie fear days were really something huh. All that arms race madness of the past century was just paranoia. Now that all us
more modern and enlightened folks realize how delusional all that national security stuff of the duck and cover days were, we can surely see that all
our nuclear submarines and ICBM's and other defense systems are foolish anachronisms and relics that should be decommissioned now they are recognized
as useless and embarrassing monuments to an obsolete twentieth century bourgeoisie mentality. ........really, ya think?
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IrC
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After carefully thinking back to times from the 50's to the 70's, trying to really remember moments, the day, what I was thinking, and so on I
conclude I do not remember much in the way of world ending fear. Sure we thought about it every so often but overall I was far less worried about the
future back then. Far greater stress and concern over world events today. People used to just live and be happy. Now we have to be bombarded daily
with Ebola, ISIS, PC, the rise yet again of communism here in the states, drive by shootings, flash mobs, you name it we have it here and now. None of
it existed in most peoples minds back then. Quite simply a much less stressful time in history.
So what if Khrushchev would get mad drunk and aides had to keep the button from him. At least we were not bombarded 365/24/7 with hundreds of news
sites telling thousands of doom and gloom stories. People did not talk amongst themselves globally and I am convinced the more they do the worse this
unending crap gets. So much for the internet being a miracle of invention, more like a doom-speaking nightmare. If anything the net has given the
voices of global insanity the power to unite and push their agenda in ever increasing ways.
I miss the happy go lucky quiet days of 99 red balloons, we were so much safer by far back then than we are now.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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What I foresee coming in the future, already arriving in the present is very disturbing. I predict that the radical fanatical delusional tribalism of
blacks and muslims will end them up with a decisive reckoning like the fate of jews in WWII Germany, and the same fate may await hordes of illegal
aliens and dysfunctional "immigrants" along with their liberal left enablers who are global village new world order mental defectives sharing a
dystopian delusion about the never existing "brotherhood of man" that is straight from the John Lennon song Imagine. Yeah, wouldn't it be such a nice
delusional musing to imagine.
But the not so minor problem is the real world never was and likely never will be that way, and the promising "formula" for achieving anything near to
such an imagined uptopia of peace and altruistic harmony is certainly NOT the delusional model pitched by moral relativists or moral regressives who
are liberal progressives proselytizing secular humanism. There is a failure in that model to understand that there actually are things that are real
about human nature and life on earth that are actually set apart as good or evil, absolutes that are not moral abstractions, and that such things as
moral values and conduct actually are associated in kind with another reality of judgment that is a heaven above and a hell below, even if those
"supernatural" things are stipulated associations realized in the here and now or the hereafter. Morality is simply not an invent your own standard
project where every hippie is tasked with a life mission to do their own thing, nor are consequences for error only imagined. A world already long
existed before each and every one of those incorrect theorists arrived, and it is a world where a lot more things are already well established, than
any one of them may "imagine". In the apt words of Shakespeare there is more to heaven and earth than any of them have ever dreamt in their
imaginings.
Storm clouds are gathering. Where is the silver lining?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DjdJydl-ds
<iframe sandbox width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/4DjdJydl-ds?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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macckone
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Latest, Maine governor apparently doesn't believe in medical tests.
The nurse who was released from quarantine in NJ after testing
negative for ebola is now threatened with quarantine in Maine.
This is definitely another case of panic and politics being anti-science.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/maine-...
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Rosco Bodine
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Preliminary tests that show negative for ebola performed too soon after exposure are inconclusive, and are repeated later because later tests may show
positive due to the varying incubation period. That is exactly why the mandatory 21-42 day quarantine is an entirely sensible and prudent measure.
This makes good sense just like a travel ban makes sense, at least to a reasonable person. Idiots never pass the reasonable person test, which is
what makes them idiots. There should be no voluntary self-monitored quarantine because it has already been demonstrated by "health care
professionals" that they are just like the same idiots who propose that option and lack the integrity and self-discipline and will to quarantine
themselves so they readily lie about violating that quarantine. Liars are unworthy of being trusted because of obvious reasons. That is the way
morally and/or mentally unfit untrustworthy persons behave because they either don't care, or it is their insane intent to be a danger to themselves
and others, or they lack the mental competency to recognize the danger. Supervised, mandatory quarantine is the necessity, dealing with idiots who
need to be treated like the idiots they are, having decisions they are unfit to make be made for them by other persons who are competent. What can be
said for adults who require adult supervision because they act like stupid and reckless irresponsible children?
What should be done with "health care professionals" who violate quarantine and lie to authorities is their medical credentials should be revoked
permanently (not suspended) and they should be criminally charged with gross medical malpractice / reckless endangerment / depraved indifference.
If they violate a quarantine at a detention location they should be shot dead on the spot. End of story.
[Edited on 30-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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macckone
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Any early test can be inconclusive but within 72 hours the test is about 98% reliable. The nurse in question had left africa 3 days before she
arrived in the US due to flight schedules. She was kept in quarantine for 4 days. No test is 100% accurate and the disease is not transmissible
until a few hours of when symptoms appear. There is little doubt at this point that she is not infected. No health care professionals have said
there is any possibility that she is infected. If she was 'symptomatic' as Chris Christie claimed then she would have tested positive unless there is
the rare instance of a repeated false negative. I place the odds of that at about 1 in a billion.
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IrC
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macckone you spend far too much time gambling. In more than one post as it were. Especially if the odds can end other peoples lives. How about for a
change we as a society decide to take zero chances with lives at stake? It is the arrogance of both the youth as well as far too many 'scientists' who
think they know all there is to know, which create so much unnecessary danger to society.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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Rosco Bodine
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@macckone
If that is true it still isn't 72 hours and 98% reliability that is acceptable when weighed against the greater confidence provided by a quarantine.
The entire goal is to prevent someone who has been exposed from importing the infection undetected and to get that safeguard as close to 100% reliable
as possible.
The CDC spokesperson and public health officials and the aid workers themselves have ALL lied already about the dangers of ebola so there is no public
confidence remaining, and that lack of confidence is being reflected by what has been conveyed by public health authorities, who have said explicitly
there is an untrustworthiness as well as unknowns that are addressed only by the quarantine. Given the circumstances it is supicious that anyone
would be defiant of the quarantine. Nothing I have said is related to Chris Christie or what is his information or judgment about how to handle
anything.
Ebola may be just the most interesting disease ever for being made the relief mission effort of those who would accept or choose that mission as their
calling, and would take upon themselves the risks that are involved. Those risks need to be compartmentalized and limited as much as possible to
those who are taking the calculated risk. If those people have a problem with that reality, then they need to find a different calling that doesn't
involve a shared risk with others who don't consent to the unnecessary shared risk being presented by untrustworthy people.
[Edited on 30-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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macckone
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No test is 100% and ebola is not a danger to western society. HIV was pegged that way in the 90s and we are still here. These are not easy diseases
to transmit. When you are a nurse and the patient is puking blood on you and you don't have adequate protection, then yes there is a serious danger
of transmission. To the common person this isn't a real threat. The reality is ebola is loose in a cities of combined totals of millions of people
but we have what, around 10 thousand suspected cases. The reality is the flu is much more dangerous.
It is very simple the nurse in question does not have ebola and even if she did she is not yet contagious. The suggestion here that she should have
been shot is outrageous.
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macckone
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A quick reality check for the paranoid:
We have had 7 cases of ebola in the US.
3 brought in from africa on medical flights,
2 flew on commercial airlines to the US,
and two infected in dallas.
That gives a R naught of around .28.
Out of those only one has died, that gives a
death rate of 14%. Keeping in mind he was
initially refused medical care and his outcome
would have likely been better if he had not
been turned away.
This is not the epidemic that will end civilization
as we know it. In fact if we have more than
a dozen people die in the US, I would be very
surprised. Of all the things that are going to
kill americans this year, this will likely be
right up there with shark bites.
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Rosco Bodine
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You are wrong that ebola is not a danger to western society. You are also wrong that ebola is not an easy disease to transmit. Both of those
assertions fly in the face of the protocols which have been long established for BOTH research and treatment involving ebola. As for HIV there have
been at least hundreds of cases of HIV of undetermined unknown means of transmission where there were no risk factors identified as likely suspect for
those who became infected anyway.
A person has a much better chance of surviving the flu than either ebola or HIV.
So far as the flu is concerned there should be much more concern for it also than there is enforced, and likewise for probably several other diseases
as well so your argument is really going nowhere about ebola.
Neither do you or anyone else know for certain at this point that the nurse does not have ebola, only the probability is much lower, and grows still
less as the time from exposure passes and she continues in good health and tests negative.
The suggestion that a person breaching quarantine should be shot is not outrageous. Neither is the suggestion that a biocontainment approved insane
asylum should be built in an isolated location, or a quarantine ship where lunatics who won't abide quarantine because they are smarter than everybody
else can while away the hours in self-admiration for what unappreciated heroes they are, and not cause needless waste of ammunition for sane persons
who might be inclined to shoot them for walking about and mingling with crowds who likely don't want themselves put at risk for which the analysis is
done by risk takers who can't tell the truth or be trusted.
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gregxy
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Last report I saw Ro for ebola in Africa was 2.4, up from 1.8. I think it went up when it entered the cities. However, they now say the rate in
Liberia is dropping, they are not sure why, could be changes to burial practices or the sick stopped coming to hospitals.
Coming to the west direct from Africa should not be an issue. However if it gets started in Mexico or India....
Terrorism is a concern. A single lone-wolf could infect 10,000 if he got access to the virus and does not care about himself. This would overwhelm
the US health care system.
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Chemosynthesis
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| Quote: Originally posted by macckone | A quick reality check for the paranoid:
We have had 7 cases of ebola in the US.
3 brought in from africa on medical flights,
2 flew on commercial airlines to the US,
and two infected in dallas.
That gives a R naught of around .28.
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I find a very real distinction between sample groups regarding someone who was transported in a special CDC plane directly to a clinical BSL-4
facility by personnel with prior BSL training, and someone who flew a commercial flight latent, symptomatic or prodromal. While a valid dataset,
conflating the two into a rate of reproduction can give very different statistics even with large sample sizes, and is less informative for clinician
or patient the more generalized the average becomes. The sample sizes we do have are small regardless of how you delineate patient/treatment groups,
though the initial indications appear promising (though even if you want to take a 15% fatality rating, that is generally unheard of in a first world
nation).
We don't often treat drug trial outcome data the same for all ages or both genders, nor disease targets between racial groups within biostatistics.
There are very significant differences in disease prevalence, progression and toleration of treatments between groups of patients. It doesn't make
sense to group the two here when our current low n, low statistical power doesn't allow very useful inferences either way, nor does it drastically
change whatever conclusions someone is likely to make. Without valid statistics, there's no reason to call someone you disagree with either paranoid
or apathetic, depending on what degree of caution you want to exercise.
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Rosco Bodine
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Happy Halloweeeeeeeeeeeen ! Eeeeeeek !
Trick or treat @ Typhoid Mary's 
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MrHomeScientist
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How do these threads keep making it out of Whimsey?
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macckone
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The statistical sample is very small and hence unreliable but it is what it is.
If we were to take it to the extreme we could say that only african males are contagious in the US and they only infect non-white females. I think
the grouping of those that arrived both ways is valid because even in africa
the major spread of the virus is in a care setting or post death setting.
But the reality is that the medical consensus is that a person is not contagious until they are symptomatic. And the suggestion that it is ok to
shoot people who are not symptomatic and have tested negative for the greater good is the very definition of paranoia.
SARS was deadly and much more contagious and yet that epidemic was not the end of civilization, nor did we quarantine travelers that were not
symptomatic. And we certainly did not shoot people.
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