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gregxy
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 10:39
Ebola


The news has been full of Ebola stories lately.

Ebola does seem to be more contagious than originally thought. Most likely it is going to fester in Africa for quite a long time.

Given the bad working conditions, its not surprising that well trained Dr's have caught the disease working in Africa. There has been one re-transmission in the USA (out of 3 patients so R=0.33). Two of those
patients were diagnosed outside the USA and they were treated very carefully. We will have to wait and see if there are more re-transmissions
from the third case (Duncan).

It seems unlikely that it will be able to spread in the USA or Europe, however there will probably be quite a few cases imported from outside and some cases of re-transmission.

I'm don't know if it can spread widely in the larger poorer cities of Asia, and South America. Any opinions?
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 10:58


Too many epidemiological variables to consider.
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 11:11


Quote: Originally posted by gregxy  


It seems unlikely that it will be able to spread in the USA or Europe,...?

Why?
How does the virus know what continent it's on?
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 12:35


Of course the virus does not care what continent it is on. However the
rate of infection is highly dependent on the behavior of the population.

Here is a recent report from the CDC:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=...

Re-transmission is 1.8 if nothing is done
0.18 if isolated at home
0.12 if isolated in a hospital (probably get higher the harder work to save them)
Per CDC Stopping the epidemic requires isolating 70% of the sick.
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 13:04



What exactly is 'isolated at home'?

We have an idea of what isolated in hospital (west) is. It is very hard to believe that
the difference in isolation at home and isolation in hospital are sol close.
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 13:46


Quote: Originally posted by jock88  

What exactly is 'isolated at home'?

We have an idea of what isolated in hospital (west) is. It is very hard to believe that
the difference in isolation at home and isolation in hospital are sol close.


Ebola patients really aren't the most mobile of people, if you didn't already know. People that are very sick with the disease already aren't likely to emerge from their dwelling unless a rescuer comes by or they're in a body bag. There are people out there that are so pathologically afraid of hospitals/medical treatment(or ideologically stunted) that they won't seek help. Many uneducated people would probably mistake their case for the flu or some other sickness, and simply stay home from work/school until they improve.




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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 15:17


Now that white people have Ebola, you can bet yourself that a cure is on the way...
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 16:06


Quote: Originally posted by Hawkguy  
Now that white people have Ebola, you can bet yourself that a cure is on the way...

That's just inflammatory.
To be sure, human trials on vaccines and treatments have started. But work began on them before the spread to the west.
The disease is scary because of the severe and dramatic symptoms and the high mortality rate. Also, not a whole lot is known about it including the vectors of the disease and the various options for treatment. This latest outbreak has caught everyone by surprise because of its magnitude. It is right for us to invest time and money into finding solutions. And "us" means those with the money -- ie, the West. It really has nothing to do with the skin colour of those affected.
That said, there is no doubt that it is to our advantage as well as to the advantage of African nations to have ways of treating the disease.
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[*] posted on 14-10-2014 at 23:26


Cell phones are VERY popular in Africa... And used just as in USA/Europe, cell phone cameras come out for police and electoral improprieties or any other notable event.

You would expect a substantial number of cell phone equipped local africans to blog & make other postings, and upload numerous pictures related to the ebola epidemic as it develops.

Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.




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[*] posted on 15-10-2014 at 07:33


Second Dallas ebola case among nurses is now news:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/in...
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[*] posted on 16-10-2014 at 11:33


New article stating airborne transmission is possible for a short time:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ebola-can-be-transmitted-via-in...


Ebola can remain in the semen of a recovered person for 3 months:
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html

Addition:
The Ro = 1.8 value that is quoted in the papers is derived by fitting the rate of growth in West Africa. From what I can tell this region is mostly rural and the economy agricultural, and the overall population density low.
Most of the roads are dirt. The rate of spread within a family appears to much higher than 1.8. But since sick individuals tend to weaken quickly and movement is difficult the sick stay at home so spread between families is lower, maybe R=0.5 The combination of the 2 gives 1.8.

In a densely populated city transmission between families may be much higher than in West Africa (through work places, schools, public transportation or a contaminated water source) so in this situation the over all R could be much larger than 1.8.

[Edited on 16-10-2014 by gregxy]
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 01:50


Quote:
Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.


This is so true, but then again, where on the net would you upload photos you take here in Africa? Facebook? Is it possible that Facebook is censoring uploads?
If there is some sort of censorship going on then I'm highly suspicious of the the reporting of cases and weather countries such as mine have been keeping cases under wraps in fear of effects on their economies.




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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 04:45


Ebola is a naturally occurring virulent plague contagion equivalent to a level 4 germ warfare agent, and known very well to be airborne contagious for more than twenty years, confirmed by NIH published studies.

That fact does not square with misleading information provided by news media and deceptive public officials as propaganda intended to soothe fears and avoid panic. What is actually unfolding is a shit hit the fan kind of situation being managed by administrators who are criminally negligent and grossly incompetent, talking out their asses instead of implementing appropriate quarantine measures that should have been done months ago.
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 05:20


Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine  
Ebola is a naturally occurring virulent plague contagion equivalent to a level 4 germ warfare agent, and known very well to be airborne contagious for more than twenty years, confirmed by NIH published studies.

That fact does not square with misleading information provided by news media and deceptive public officials as propaganda intended to soothe fears and avoid panic. What is actually unfolding is a shit hit the fan kind of situation being managed by administrators who are criminally negligent and grossly incompetent, talking out their asses instead of implementing appropriate quarantine measures that should have been done months ago.


When you say airborne, to what extent do you mean? Small droplets of fluid expelled from an infected person can certainly be inhaled and cause disease, but I don't see how those droplets could stay suspended (or stay "wet" enough for the virus to survive) for 20 years. Can you attach a source or two to support that claim?

Otherwise I definitely agree that many public officials and health workers are completely underestimating the disease, while many politicians are doing their best to stir up panic without doing anything productive about the issue. I've heard one nutjob go so far as to say that there are ISIS militants crossing the US border with Mexico and that they're bringing Ebola with them.




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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 06:12


Here is a 1995 article

Transmission of Ebola virus (Zaire strain) to uninfected control monkeys in a biocontainment laboratory.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8551825

And here is another 1995 article

Lethal experimental infections of rhesus monkeys by aerosolized Ebola virus.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7547435

There is a lot of equivocation about the non-existent distinction for practical purposes what is the real difference between aerosol and airborne ......and of course we aren't talking about the vapor pressure of a virus as if it were a solvent evaporating .....but we are talking about can this virus float in the air and use the wind from breathing or shuffling feet or butterfly wings to move from point A to point B .........yes it can.

I would point out that 20 years is not required for the transport of live vrus to retain viability ......even seconds or minutes would be sufficient. And certainly in cold weather and low himidity there is a natural cryodessication that could occur and put live virus in the air for long periods. Anyway it is really a non issue which is missing the point entirely that ebola is a virulent and highly contagious plague which really requires level 4 protocols like would be used in a germ warfare laboratory, and people who are denying this are simply lying about it.

[Edited on 17-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 08:22


Quote: Originally posted by froot  
Quote:
Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.


This is so true, but then again, where on the net would you upload photos you take here in Africa? Facebook? Is it possible that Facebook is censoring uploads?
If there is some sort of censorship going on then I'm highly suspicious of the the reporting of cases and weather countries such as mine have been keeping cases under wraps in fear of effects on their economies.


I have seen some USA postings by those who would deny that there IS an ebola epidemic, based on the lack of such pictures and postings by the common people in the allegedly affected areas.

I admit, I've no idea what social media west/central Africans might choose to post there stuff to-

If what's happening on the ground in Africa is so god awful looking that net censorship is being imposed to prevent panic for protection of economic interests, someone has made a VERY bad choice. At policy level in the US, nothing seems to have been learned from the last epidemic that came out of Africa-

Looking at the potential repercussions of large numbers of infections, loss of critical skilled operators and workers just plain refusing to leave home and come to work on our NUCLEAR POWER PLANT INFRASTRUCTURE, I can see a world wide mass extinction level event unfolding if power grid goes down and the reactor cores/spent fuel pools melt and burn.

Nothing lasting was learned at policy level from the events at Fukushima either, apparently.

I have a habit of studying major disasters and "accidents". They usually are multi component events, with each individual accident/incident/bad engineering choice/lack of foresight and over site interacting synergistically to yield these very bad outcomes... And I think I'm about to study my last one.




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Rosco Bodine
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 08:57


Recently I mentioned disturbing events in the news which could have apocalyptic consequences and this is one facet of that news I had in mind, understanding that the people tasked with risk management of potential catastrophes are quite clueless, at least measured by what things they are publicly saying.
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 09:18


Last one Bert? You may well be right.

Yet another political appointee with zero medical qualifications, zero experience, a trip and fall Lawyer is going to be the Ebola Czar? A nurse who worked at the hospital but not near patient zero decides to take a Caribbean cruise confined with large numbers of people. Now in quarantine in Belize with officials stating her symptoms are clearly Ebola. One who did work with P-zero decides to fly to Ohio. On and on yet to quote Obola "it is not a good idea to stop flights coming in from Ebola stricken nations". This logic is insanity, suicidal madness plain and simple. Sending people in to help is fine, allowing infected people to fly here with no warning and no quarantine is suicidal insanity. While refusing to close the border to an endless influx of unknown persons all in hopes of building the democrat voter base while giving zero thought to the safety and security of a nation. You do not stand naked in a fire dousing it with gas in an effort to quell the inferno. Unless you are a mindless PC liberal politician making decisions affecting the lives of hundreds of millions all based on purely political goals. Madness. 2 months ago there was not a single Ebola infected person in the country that we know of. I leave room to consider the reports of Africans down south migrating here through those open borders.

Oh did my use of the word Obola offend any liberals here? When you are soaking in sweat with a 104 fever holding your dead child while starving due to empty shelves in the stores, at that moment ask me if I care what you think of my political stance right now. A multitude of insane decisions is heading us to extinction and I for one blame all those who put them in charge.




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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 09:39


Rosco, I'm going to ignore the hysterics that posted before me(YES, the world is ending now, today! If only Romney had been elected!) and continue our conversation. I have heard of and looked into the monkey-laboratory case, and established that yes, Ebola can be spread through airborne means, but where did you find the figure of 20 years? I have heard 20 DAYS.



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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 09:54


Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now  
Rosco, I'm going to ignore the hysterics that posted before me(YES, the world is ending now, today! If only Romney had been elected!) and continue our conversation. I have heard of and looked into the monkey-laboratory case, and established that yes, Ebola can be spread through airborne means, but where did you find the figure of 20 years? I have heard 20 DAYS.


You are misunderstanding my meaning over a misplaced prepositional phrase ....pardon my grammatical error......I thought my meaning was clear enough by the 1995 article dates .....approximately 20 years ago for the data not for the live virus environmental persistence which is unknown.

Tearless and clueless have a lot in common. You may be comforted to ignore Darwin Award class stupidity by clueless sycophants you may think are just the smartest persons ever, and make their mental incompetency and depraved indifference and criminal negligence your politically correct meme substituted for common sense and wisdom ......but people with higher cerebral functioning are rightly concerned about what is disturbing events unfolding due in no small part attributable to the steering skills of reckless drivers in dire need of adult supervision.









Edit: file attached for your reading pleasure

Attachment: TheHotZone.pdf (2MB)
This file has been downloaded 1685 times

[Edited on 17-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]
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Amos
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 13:12


Rosco, I finally understand what you meant, and yes, I agree that far too much misinformation about Ebola has been spread largely to prevent unrest. Now, I was keeping things classy in my discussion with you, showing a genuine interest in what you were talking about, and I may have made a slight reading error when interpreting your post but I did nothing to you personally to deserve such an attack.
IrC, I will respond to you by saying that it is entirely impossible for you to know the president's intentions or motivations with regards to the decisions he has made, just as it is impossible for me to read your mind. I never put words in your mouth, I only added in my own sarcastic comments because they seemed to fit in with the general atmosphere here. It hardly matters if you are insulted as you mentioned earlier that you had no qualms about offending anyone with what you said, so you kind of asked for it. Also, I don't recall spending money on education. I wasn't a private school kid.

I think that you grossly overestimate how much responsibility and how much power the president wields in the area of medicine. Right now, it is not even a priority of national security that we have Ebola in our country right now. It's receiving a lot of media attention right now because it's making its debut on American soil, but so far it has done no more damage than the bubonic plague typically does in a year within the US(the same disease that once wiped out nearly a third of all living humans).

Rosco Bodine and IrC, when the number of Ebola cases worldwide has begun falling and the United States still has its infrastructure, and the civilized world as we know it carries on about its business as it always had before, I want an apology from both of you. You've both chosen to label me as a person of inferior intellect based on what I had to say about this issue, when honestly nobody here, and probably nobody anywhere else unless they've been studying the disease in its original environment, has the foresight to determine what will happen. The politicians in power during this ebola outbreak aren't going to change before it's over, so when we're all still alive and the world hasn't ended, you won't have any excuse as to why your predictions were incorrect. You and your inflated intellects will merely be wrong.




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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 14:09


http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2014/10/obama-plans-let-eb...

Interesting development if this is later confirmed true because it shows the mens rea for the criminal negligence and depraved indifference revealed by failure to provide for the safety of American citizens being put FIRST, as the proper legal and moral duty that does exist and is enforceable.
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 14:21


Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now  
Rosco, I'm going to ignore the hysterics that posted before me(YES, the world is ending now, today! If only Romney had been elected!) and continue our conversation. I have heard of and looked into the monkey-laboratory case, and established that yes, Ebola can be spread through airborne means, but where did you find the figure of 20 years? I have heard 20 DAYS.


Thus proving you wasted the money spent on education. While attempting to convey a superior intellect you miss the mark on every single point. One you cannot tell the difference between hysteria and anger. Second you ASSume I would have supported Romney, who in my opinion is just as big a mindless fool as Obola. Meaning you obviously do not have a clue when you make your so called intellectually superior ASSumptions. Third you cannot even read with comprehension, ASSuming 20 years relates to something I did not speak to. I was saying they have known for 20 years or longer Ebola can be airborne. What you prove is you know nothing whatsoever.

If I sound insulting then admit you first insulted, or does your failure of reading comprehension also include your own words which were both clearly insulting and clearly directed directly against myself. Stop ASSuming what others think, believe, or support. It is very clear you not only have no clue, you call it wrong every time. FYI I am one who does not follow anyone or any party blindly. I look at each person individually based upon the merits known. I make decisions based upon facts, logic, reason, knowledge. Always choosing the best path available in any situation on any subject. I have no doubt such an outlook is alien to you and all who think in similar ways.

I should point out one aspect that must exist to define hysteria is fear. I am not afraid I have faith. Yet another thing alien to so many. I am angry because simple common sense would have stopped Ebola here before it started. There is no reason for this outbreak. We have had protocols for over 50 years, every one of which has been thrown under the buss by this government. A hundred years ago we were protected since all immigrants had to stay on Ellis Island until it was clear they were not bringing in any disease. Simple common sense.

Close the borders and refuse to allow any flights coming in from Africa unless they are only allowed at an isolated fully quarantined location where no one gets out unless after 3 full weeks they show zero signs of Ebola. Each group in a given week isolated from new groups, workers separated from each other within the groups who also cannot rejoin the mainland population until they also prove to be Ebola free. There is no reason for Ebola to be here if simple precautions were taken and this illness, a virtual death sentence, was brought to us by the criminals running things. This makes me damn angry.

You posted before I finished editing. Apology my shiny metal ass. I never said the world was ending, you posted those words in such a way as to proclaim they were mine. Dishonesty is the word. All I did was agree with the words of Bert by saying he may be right. "Last one Bert? You may well be right.".

The world will not end nor will I, my creator will protect me while people are bleeding out around me. This is something I have no doubt most cannot understand or believe. Ironically it is also why I have nothing to fear while most do. Yet death and illness is not going to be the only outcome, the destruction to our economy is something which will make my life even harder, my income lower, unnecessarily so. This could have all been avoided.

"I think that you grossly overestimate how much responsibility and how much power the president wields in the area of medicine. Right now, it is not even a priority of national security that we have Ebola in our country right now."

The one thing which is a solid mandate under the Constitution is the requirement (not merely the wish) that the President protect our borders, sovereignty, and citizens. Therefore the power (and responsibility) is given to him to do just that. He orders people in various positions to accomplish this goal. However when he makes political appointments of unqualified people such as the trip and fall lawyer he is making the new 'Ebola Czar' he has abdicated that Constitutional responsibility. It was his decision alone as to who he puts in charge of carrying out his Constitutional responsibilities. There is a reason for the phrase 'the buck stops here'. Problem is 100 percent of his entire term he has taken no responsibility for a single thing, all the 'bucks' belong to others. Every single time.

"Also, I don't recall spending money on education. I wasn't a private school kid"

Since there is no free education nor lunches, someone paid with money forcibly taken by the IRS from their labor. Nothing to brag about.




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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 14:41



Were there not ebola outbreaks before in Africa. The world as we know it did not come to an end.
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[*] posted on 17-10-2014 at 14:53


Quote: Originally posted by jock88  

Were there not ebola outbreaks before in Africa. The world as we know it did not come to an end.


Urban outbreaks, or rural? If they were rural, with low population density and low personal mobility, a VERY different situation from a tightly packed urban slum next to an airport.

The world had seen plenty of flu outbreaks before the pandemic flu of 1918. The effect was a bit different then...

Now we have a rather different industrial and urban infrastructure than in 1918. How many ongoing industrial processes were there in 1918 that could render a continent uninhabitable if the electric power failed and everyone just walked away from them for a month?




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1. Attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly and fairly that your target says: “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.”
2. List any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement).
3. Mention anything you have learned from your target.
4. Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.

Anatol Rapoport was a Russian-born American mathematical psychologist (1911-2007).

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