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Author: Subject: HELP! EU/DE/FR: Impending infrastructural apocalypse and possibility of civil war
clearly_not_atara
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[*] posted on 8-8-2022 at 09:35


Herr Haber: I admire your fighting spirit, but even the Manhattan Project took three years! We have four months.



[Edited on 04-20-1969 by clearly_not_atara]
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Tsjerk
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[*] posted on 8-8-2022 at 11:57


Quote: Originally posted by Organikum  


Not being able to buy toilet paper or sunflower oil is not exactly the end of the world as we know it but a mere inconvenience which does not even come near to what the majority of the worlds population has to endure every day. Spoiled brats syndrome I would say.
[Edited on 8-8-2022 by Organikum]


What Org says
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Herr Haber
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[*] posted on 8-8-2022 at 12:05


Quote: Originally posted by clearly_not_atara  
Herr Haber: I admire your fighting spirit, but even the Manhattan Project took three years! We have four months.


Ok, that's true.
We were also told vaccines took years to develop ;)
Those in position to take advantage of the impending crisis have been getting ready to make a nice profit.
LNG tanker fleet owners certainly go to bed with a smile.

I'm not sure if it's still fighting spirit as far as I'm concerned. I've been announced the end of the world a couple of times, lived through several "crisis", pandemics etc. One thing I'm noticing is that my standards of living slowly erode.
I chose not to live in fear knowing that I'll probably endure anyway and what has to happen will happen.




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[*] posted on 8-8-2022 at 13:48


IMHO one cannot have oneself blackmailed by obvious assholes and gangsters.
If that's going to cause some inconvenience I'd be glad to endure it.

I see a lot of creeps coming out of their holes who whine a lot about the coming doom.
In my opinion these are folks that secretly wish for it.
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[*] posted on 8-8-2022 at 14:41


Quote: Originally posted by Gargamel  

In my opinion these are folks that secretly wish for it.


I tend to agree with that sentiment. Which reminds me of the saying "Be careful what you wish for - you just might get it!"





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[*] posted on 9-8-2022 at 00:01


So far so good. No flame war yet, but as is usual in these socio-political commentaries, I feel one lurking in the closet. Haven't had the chance to lock a thread yet, BUT I will if needs be.

Now as far as uncertainty goes, NO ONE KNOWS what the hell can happen when you get out of bed tomorrow. My whole life has changed in a few microseconds before.

Keep it VERY civil, please.




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[*] posted on 18-8-2022 at 10:01


I think people need to wake up and look beyond the 2 party system. Whether it leans left or right, I don't care. As long as it shifts the West away from the lunacy we're currently all in and towards rational policies and decision making i'll be content.




Kept you waiting, huh?

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Tsjerk
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[*] posted on 18-8-2022 at 10:12


You do realize all this shit is going on in a place where there is no 2 party system? Read; anywhere but the USA?
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[*] posted on 18-8-2022 at 12:23


Quote: Originally posted by Tsjerk  
You do realize all this shit is going on in a place where there is no 2 party system? Read; anywhere but the USA?

Give me an example please, the popular parties are always funded by lobbyists that want the same thing whilst giving the illusion of freedom of choice.
Those same parties also get the majority of positive media attention, makes sense, they have the most money behind them.





Kept you waiting, huh?

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Tsjerk
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[*] posted on 18-8-2022 at 21:53


Maybe we should read arkoma's post again, or not and have this thread closed. Although it was not going anywhere anyway.

Maybe you should read a bit about systems outside the US, also those in the western world. It's not a complete shit show everywhere.

[Edited on 19-8-2022 by Tsjerk]
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Organikum
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[*] posted on 19-8-2022 at 02:59


Quote: Originally posted by Gargamel  
IMHO one cannot have oneself blackmailed by obvious assholes and gangsters.
If that's going to cause some inconvenience I'd be glad to endure it.
.........

Uh, yes, I agree. There is just one little problem here and that is that we are not getting blackmailed but we are the blackmailers. We are not threatened to have gas supply cut off, we are threatening and actively planing to stop importing gas from our highly reliable supplier of 40+ years despite being bound by 15 to 30 year contracts. We will most probably end up paying billions for breaching those contracts without getting any gas, the gas will be burned off at the gas-fields, lets not think of the ecological impact this has.
If you hear in the news some politician in Russia has threatened this or that - and what? Do we start to take any publicity orientated politician seriously? Important are only the company - GAZPROM - and the big boss. And they do not speak such nonsense.
This sword cuts on both directions and it is us who wants to cut it loose and blame the other side for there will be suffering.
Regarding blackmail, you may find on a closer look that sanctions are nothing but blackmail in its purest form: You do as I want or I will hurt you. Sanctions are not sentences spoken by a judge or jury, sanctions are blackmail by the one with more power against a weaker one, includes so called "friends" and there is no legal process, no defence can be mounted, it is bullying nothing else.

So we bring this situation, which will not be nearly as bad as some fear, no civil war over the toilet paper supply chain or such, we bring it upon ourselves. 100% self-inflicted. Completely unnecessary and stupid as when one power ascends to real world domination all others will suffer as total power corrupts totally, this truth you won't deny.

/ORG




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[*] posted on 19-8-2022 at 03:55


Interesting perspective, Organikum.
My thought is that to treat every sanction as a form of blackmail is probably an oversimplification in many cases. And even if leverage is applied, there can be just reasons for applying pressure at a foreign relations level. Relationships between countries and between different people groups is always complex and some nuance is required. In any particular instance, proper contextual and historical understanding is required.

Just a mod request here. Given that this is a political discussion and one that could easily branch in many different directions, could we please add some clarity to opinions expressed by giving a few geographic details. For example, I assume that Organikum's comments about what "We" are doing is from a US perspective. If he is speaking from Germany or the UK or Australia, his words carry quite a different meaning.

I am keen to keep this conversation civil as it currently is. Some clarity helps this.


And, btw, welcome back Organikum. You predate me and are something of a legend here.
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[*] posted on 19-8-2022 at 08:28


Quote: Originally posted by j_sum1  
For example, I assume that Organikum's comments about what "We" are doing is from a US perspective. If he is speaking from Germany or the UK or Australia, his words carry quite a different meaning.
I assumed his comments are from a German perspective given his location is listed as Europe and I have some vague memory of him being from Germany.

I share the perspective of the other mods: this can stay open as long as it remains civil, but since it has little to no direct bearing on amateur science, if it gets nasty I won’t hesitate to close it.




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[*] posted on 19-8-2022 at 09:36


It's not blackmail as that involves the threat to divulge some secret. I think coercion or extortion would be more apt. And yes, we are being cut off. Russia has reduced gas exports to Europe significantly (Nord Stream 1 has been reduced to less than half) as a response to economic sanctions.



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[*] posted on 19-8-2022 at 17:55


Quote: Originally posted by j_sum1  


And, btw, welcome back Organikum. You predate me and are something of a legend here.


second that




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[*] posted on 23-8-2022 at 07:40


lol, just move to russia))))



sorry for my English
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[*] posted on 23-8-2022 at 09:18


All of the discussions on political mall feasance aside, the reality for the people of Europe is not a very positive one at the moment. Steve, if you believe your fears are well founded and your energy needs will no longer be met then perhaps it is a good idea to consider familiarizing yourself with alternative forms of generating heat for your home. I am concerned this winter will be very harsh for the German people and if preparations are not made now then many people will succumb to the cold. Furthermore if your energy needs are as dire as you say then it is very likely not just energy for heating, but the supply of food will suffer as well due to difficulties in transporting goods. This will result in people getting very hungry and thus very desperate and desperate people do violent/irrational things. I prey it does not get that bad, but if it does please be prepared to distance yourself and those you love from major population centers. I hope all of this does not come to pass, but if it does then the German people will have to take it upon themselves to endure. For what its worth I do sincerely wish all of the members here who may suffer from these poor decisions the best and I hope they take no offense if I prey for their safety and prosperity. God speed friends.
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[*] posted on 24-8-2022 at 02:59


We should not be overly negative about the near future in Europe. Many people may feel discomfort when they have to live in colder houses (e.g. 17 C instead of 20 C or 21 C), and this will not be fun, but it is of a total different order of magnitude, than what is described here. There will be no famine, major societal collapse, or whatever dystopian scenario one may think of. Economy will get a big pushback, many people become poorer (can buy less for their money), but the EU can handle these things. We have had worse things in the past. I do take some measures, such as making our house less energy-consuming, arranging the installation of an heat-pump and adding a few more solar panels to reduce the costs, but that's all.



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[*] posted on 24-8-2022 at 05:09


Woelen, I don't think that EU can handle this. Concept of EU practically broke up on this. Now every country is on its own. And I am actually terrified by attitude of our government. Their mainly concern is war, EU presidency and stealing. They just tell their citizens to put another sweater on themself and that's solution for the winter. I hope that I will have money for living and food and wouldn't be forced to choose between them. If gas pipeline close up, factory in which I work probably would close up and that's game over for me. I think that this is reality of many people. And this can lead to violent demonstrations.
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[*] posted on 24-8-2022 at 11:12


Quote: Originally posted by Vishenka  
lol, just move to russia))))


Well, although what people are saying here in this topic might suggest otherwise, when looking at just inflation Russia isn't doing any better than Europe. People here are just used to a very high standard of living.

At least we don't have to worry that we, or our sons, or our fathers are send to the front of a war, with a very good chance of not returning.

[Edited on 24-8-2022 by Tsjerk]
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[*] posted on 24-8-2022 at 12:12


Calm down, breathe out. Panic isn't going to solve anything.



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[*] posted on 26-8-2022 at 09:03


What do you mean by very high standard of living?I do not understand this

In Europe, winters with temperature, for example -20 degrees, are rare. In recent times, due to global heating of the whole earth, they have become even more rare. Atlantic heat now reaches Eastern Europe in winter and further
In addition, you can always buy or make a stove on solid fuel like coal or wood and heat their house
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[*] posted on 26-8-2022 at 11:34


grid collapse in the EU is much less likely than someplace like texas. But you may have to work around rolling blackouts.

It isn't like electricity was wide spread before 1900.
A reminder that oil supplies are dwindling world wide.
Time to get off fossil fuels.
It is going to be a 100 million years before they are replinished (at least if ever).

All of that grain that has gone bad in ukraine can still be used to make ethanol and butanol.
In the US most grain storage facilities have contracts with ethanol plants for spoilage.
ethanol can be converted to heavier organics as an oil substitute.
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[*] posted on 27-8-2022 at 01:02


Quote: Originally posted by Hexabromobenzene  
What do you mean by very high standard of living?I do not understand this


When you live in the EU and can't see the average standard of living is very high you are blind. You should go visit the world a bit, or read about how more than half the world population lives.
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[*] posted on 27-8-2022 at 04:36


It is happening already as I told it and the linked article proves two points: First, It is the EU not buying more gas then the contractual minimum, not Russia limiting the supply and second that we are more then doubling the CO2 from the use of natural gas by buying expensive gas which already carries an CO2 penalty in production and transportation and forcing Russia to burn off the excessive gas we would have used otherwise.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62652133

You will find the official statements are clear in that this gas which is burned off was meant to be delivered to Europe but nobody bought it. It shows that all the talk about Russia cutting the supply off are nothing but propaganda and I am afraid propaganda in anticipation of what is to come, what is planned by the EU/NATO. The gas supply crisis which is talked about so much can only happen when Germany and the EU are going to refuse to buy the contractural defined amounts of gas and this is only possible when the relations between the countries enter a state which allows this to do without having to pay for it anyways, say an official state of war.

Lets face it: The EU population is groomed for war, and honestly I am getting somewhat scared, I did not believe this could happen in my lifetime.
Pls note that I am not saying "war will come" but it seems obvious our politicians see this as an actual option.

This should close the discussion regarding the question who causes shortages. It is us not willing to buy, not Russia not willing to deliver.

And also pls note that I am not taking any position if the decision not to buy any more gas from Russia and having them burning it off instead is a wise one. That is up to discussion, arguments can brought up for it and against.
Important is to discuss based on facts and not on propaganda or any discussion will rapidly descend into mudslinging as thats what propaganda is: Mud.


Personally though I believe for my country, Germany, this it is acting against the interests of my own country and its population something all politicians with official positions have sworn not to do and that those responsible should be tried for treason.
Not to be misunderstood: I am all for supporting Ukraine in the defense against the aggressor including supplying heavy and advanced weaponry under the condition those weapons are not going to units of the right sector.
The last paragraph is not in the scope of this thread if somebody wants to discuss this, not here - PM me.




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